AL East foes are set to clash this evening at Rogers Centre. It’s put up or shut up time for the Blue Jays (46-54), in desperate need of some wins. Toronto is still alive in the playoff race, but another defeat tonight could push the front office to punt on this season. As for the Rays (57-42), they’ll be looking to build off of Monday’s series-opening victory. Which of these two rivals will come out on top this evening?
Both the Rays and Blue Jays have -110 odds on the moneyline, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Tampa Bay and Toronto on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet today
- Rays ML (-110): The Rays aren’t a perfect team, but they are the more well-rounded club in this matchup. I trust Rasmussen against almost anyone, especially the sport’s lowest-scoring lineup. On the other side, Tampa Bay could do some damage against Gausman’s splitter-heavy approach.
Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
If the Rays are going to make a World Series appearance, it’ll likely be due to the strength of their pitching. Tonight’s starter, Drew Rasmussen, might be the sport’s most underrated hurler. Through 99.1 innings (18 starts), the righty has notched a 3.26 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 98 strikeouts (8.9 K/9). To boot, he’s been better on the road (3.02 ERA) than at home (3.51 ERA). Rasmussen sits within the top 75th percentile among qualified starters in chase rate (33.0%), hard-hit rate (33.8%) and ground ball rate (47.4%). However, it’s his 99th-percentile walk rate (4.3%) that really stands out.
A pitcher with pinpoint accuracy such as Rasmussen has the potential to dominate in this spot. The Blue Jays are averaging an American League-worst 2.75 walks per game this season. However, that one statistic doesn’t do this group’s offensive ineptitude justice. Toronto is 30th in runs scored (398), 25th in home runs (101) and 28th in OPS (.684). Stars such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (96 wRC+), George Springer (95 wRC+) and Alejandro Kirk (64 wRC+) have all disappointed for the reigning American League champs. That’s especially true in the power department; Springer and Kazuma Okamoto are the only players on this roster with double-digit home runs. In comparison, Rasmussen has posted a minuscule 0.9 HR/9 rate during his seven-year career.
If there’s a glimmer of hope for the Blue Jays, it’s the presence of Kevin Gausman. In what could be one of his final starts in Toronto, the veteran will hope to give his floundering squad a boost tonight. Through 112.1 innings pitched, he’s recorded a 4.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 116 strikeouts (9.3 K/9). Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but advanced metrics suggest that Gausman is due for better days in the future. He wields a respectable 3.88 xERA and .240 xBA. Even more impressive, the 35-year-old is within the top 70th percentile in chase rate (34.4%), whiff rate (27.9%) and walk rate (6.8%).
Much like their opponents tonight, the Rays aren’t the most powerful lineup. However, they make up for it with elite bat to ball skills. Tampa Bay is 16th in runs scored (442), third in batting average (.258) and fifth in on-base percentage (.332). Leading the charge for the Rays is the trio of Junior Caminero (154 wRC+), Yandy Diaz (104 wRC+) and Jonathan Aranda (135 wRC+). They are the only three batters on the team with 200+ plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100. Gausman’s most-used off-speed pitch is the splitter (39%). Against that offering, Tampa Bay is slashing .280/.330/.393 at the plate this season.
Best Bet: Rays ML (-110)
Gausman is a good pitcher, but Tampa Bay’s success against the splitter is cause for concern. On the other side, Rasmussen is a pitcher that almost never beats himself. That’s not ideal for a Toronto side that struggles to get on base. Given how bad the Blue Jays have looked recently, it’s difficult to back them against a contending Rays club.
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