With just over two months remaining in the MLB season, just two divisions are effectively sewn up. Per FanGraphs, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a 99.8% of winning the NL West and the Milwaukee Brewers an 88.2% chance of claiming the NL Central. Unsurprisingly, these two teams have the two best records in baseball and faced off in the NL Championship Series last year.
That doesn’t mean the remaining two months of the regular season are useless for the two teams, though. Milwaukee will surely hope to secure home-field advantage in a potential October rematch with the Dodgers, and in order to do so, it’ll need to keep the pedal down, sweeping opponents at the bottom of the standings like Los Angeles surely will. Tonight’s 7:40 p.m. ET home game against the New York Mets, who are long out of the playoff picture, qualifies as one of those games.
Brandon Sproat will take the mound for the Brewers, and Zach Thornton will offer the first pitch for the Mets shortly thereafter.
Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers Best Bets
- New York Mets Moneyline (+113): If this pitching matchup were virtually any other combination, I’d easily pick Milwaukee, but Sproat is the clear weak link in the Brewers’ rotation, and Thornton has shown a lot of potential.
- Juan Soto 1+ Home Runs (+278): Sproat has given up 15 home runs in just 18 appearances and ranks in just the 32nd percentile in barrel rate, and Soto — who ranks in the top decile in just about every Statcast category — should be primed to take advantage.
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers prediction, preview
New York fans rightfully saw last season as a disaster, when the Mets were briefly the best team in baseball before suffering a stretch of 14 losses in 17 games and ultimately missing out on the playoffs on a tiebreaker. This season has been much worse, as New York lost 12 games in a row early in the season and has the second-worst record in the National League, ahead of only the perennially bottom-feeding Colorado Rockies. Despite all their talent, the Mets’ offense has been the worst in baseball; while Juan Soto leads the National League in OPS, Marcus Semien and Mark Vientos have been utter disasters, nearly canceling out Soto’s positive value. Additionally, New York’s rotation has been the seventh-worst in baseball, as fifth starters Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, and David Peterson have all been awful and Clay Holmes’ freak leg fracture robbed the team of its best pitcher. At least the Mets’ bullpen has been a league-average unit, as Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley, and Huascar Brazobán have helped make up for Edwin Díaz’s departure.
For Milwaukee, it’s been business as usual. The Brewers have been favored to win the division for the fourth straight season ever since the middle of May, and they’ve led the division for 80 consecutive days. Despite getting swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates right before the All-Star break, Milwaukee has lost more than two games in a row just four times all season. This season, the Brewers rank seventh in OPS, and they have six hitters with at least 180 plate appearances and an OPS+ north of 120, including notable All-Star snub Brice Turang, who leads all NL second basemen in WAR. They’ve paired that with baseball’s best rotation, headlined by Cy Young Award favorite Jacob Misiorowski, and their bullpen has been the league’s fifth-best as well. Pat Murphy could be well on his way to his third consecutive NL Manager of the Year award, and it would be well-deserved.
Thornton is a relatively untested option, as he’s made just three starts in his MLB career. While he struggled in the first one, giving up four runs in 4.1 innings on May 20, he produced six innings of one-run ball on June 26 and seven innings of two-hit, shutout ball on July 12. He’s also been decent in the minors, pitching to a 4.02 ERA across two levels this season, and he actually had a 2.77 mark across 10 starts for Double-A Binghampton last season. That doesn’t guarantee MLB success, of course, but his repertoire is good (98 Stuff+), with above-average breaking balls and a slightly below-average fastball. Additionally, in his three MLB starts, Thornton has been good at inducing chases, which could be an asset against Milwaukee, the league’s most patient team. Though he’s been prone to giving up barrels, the Brewers actually have among the lowest barrel rates, thanks to their tendency to hit grounders. I’m certainly not expecting seven shutout innings from Thornton again, especially since he has been worse on the road across all three levels and Milwaukee has been better at home, but I also don’t expect him to get completely battered.
The Brewers are starting their worst pitcher tonight. Sproat hasn’t had a great rookie season, pitching to just a 5.16 ERA across 18 appearances (16 starts), and while he’s had his flashes, giving up two or fewer earned runs in eight separate appearances, he’s also had his fair share of blow-ups and has only escaped without damage twice. Additionally, Sproat hasn’t had much of a track record in the minors, as he spent most of 2025 with New York’s Triple-A affiliate and pitched to a 4.24 mark. Per Statcast, he ranks in just the 24th percentile in expected ERA and the seventh percentile in pitching run value, though his 100 Stuff+ suggests he’s slightly better than Thornton. In particular, Sproat has struggled with his control, nullifying one of the Mets’ biggest weaknesses, and he ranks in the bottom third in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, three categories in which New York ranks in the top 10. Additionally, while the Mets’ offense has been even worse on the road this season, Sproat has been atrocious at home, recording a 6.25 ERA in eight appearances (seven starts).
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers pick, best bet
Best Bet: New York Mets Moneyline (+113)
Betting on one of the worst teams in baseball to beat the best team in baseball is always a risk, especially on the road, but Milwaukee is just 10-8 in Sproat’s appearances, and New York’s offensive profile fits his weaknesses well.
Strong Lean: Juan Soto 1+ Home Runs (+278)
Soto hasn’t homered since the All-Star break, but he’s always a threat to go yard, and four homers in 15 games in July is right in line with the expected value on this prop. Sproat is a worse-than-average pitcher he’ll have faced over that span, as he throws mostly four-seamers to lefties and Soto has a ridiculous .978 xSLG against righty fastballs.
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