Could this matchup once again be a preview of the postseason?
Last year, many believed that the Phillies were the only thing standing in the way of the Dodgers and another World Series title, and while Philly went down in four games in the NLDS, it certainly put up a fight.
This series in mid-July doesn’t quite carry the same weight, but after a 10-7 victory on Monday, I can guarantee that the Phillies want to make a statement and take this three-game set.
Let’s preview this crucial National League clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dodgers vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Tonight, we have a pitching matchup between Zack Wheeler and Justin Wrobleski. One of these two men made the NL All-Star Team — and it was’t Wheeler. Try to imagine telling yourself that back in early March. That’s not a knock on Wrobleski, either, as the left-hander has been quite good. Yes, Wrobleski has benefitted from an 80.0% strand rate and a .251 opponent BABIP, but at the end of the day, the 26-year-old has maintained a 2.69 ERA across 100.1 innings of work in 2026. There’s nothing overly special about the southpaw, but Wrobleski simply doesn’t make things easy on his opponents. He’s got a 96th percentile walk rate (5.0%) and he’s surrendering just 0.72 home runs per nine. If you want to score off Wrobleski, you’re going to have to string multiple hits together, and that’s generally a difficult task for any lineup.
Still, let’s not get anything twisted. Just because Wrobleski is technically the All-Star, that doesn’t mean he’s the better pitcher. Honestly, he’s not even in the same class as Wheeler. Consider for a moment that Wheeler ranks second among all pitchers in bWAR this season (4.7), despite the fact that he missed the first month of the Phillies’ schedule due to injury. Sure, Wheeler is benefitting from the same strand rate (88.7%) and BABIP (.239) luck that Wrobleski is, but a 2.13 ERA and a 2.64 xERA stand up a lot better when they’re attached to a 30.4% strikeout rate and an half-decade of utter dominance. It feels like Wheeler is only getting stronger as the campaign rolls along, too. In his last two starts before the All-Star break, Wheeler tossed a combined 13.0 innings, conceding just one runs and six hits. He also struck out 24 batters in that stretch. Not too shabby.
This happens to be a pretty decent time to square-off with the Dodgers, as well. Not that Wheeler needs the help. Los Angeles has struggled to score runs in the month of July, ranking 29th in home runs (13), 28th in ISO (.128) and 25th in wRC+ (86). Part of that is the prolonged injury absence of Will Smith (neck), but a larger issue has been plain old underperformance. Kyle Tucker is in the first season of a four-year, $240 million contract, yet he’s produced a 98 wRC+. Teoscar Hernandez sports a career-low .139 ISO to go along with a 91 wRC+. Mookie Betts has also continued his downward trajectory from 2025. Specific to July, Betts has walked far more frequently than he’s struck out, yet he’s still managed an OBP below .300. That’s hard to do.
Dodgers vs. Phillies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Phillies ML (-123)
It just feels silly to bet against Zack Wheeler at the moment, especially with how poorly the Dodgers bats have looked throughout the month. Wheeler owns a 1.90 ERA since May 12. That’s a span of 75.2 innings.
Strong Lean: Under 9 (-119)
This is a strong starting pitching matchup, and while Justin Wrobleski’s 4.13 xERA suggests regression is on the horizon, he’s still a left-handed pitcher going up against the Phillies. Philadelphia sports a just an 88 wRC+ versus southpaws — 26th in MLB.
