As the second half of the MLB season gets underway, the NL Wild Card race is a tight battle. Right now, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Miami Marlins are tied for the final spot, with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Washington Nationals all within three games. On the surface, it may seem too early to be overly concerned with the playoff picture, but given that both league’s final Wild Card place was decided on a tiebreaker last season, every game matters.
The decider of the Cardinals-Diamondbacks series, set to begin at 4:10 p.m. ET in Arizona, could ultimately prove to be the difference when the playoff bracket finalizes in September.
Andre Pallante will start the series finale for St. Louis, while the hosts will counter with Eduardo Rodríguez.
Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bets
- Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-126): It’s hard to argue with Eduardo Rodríguez’s track record this season, given that the Diamondbacks have won 14 of the 19 games he’s started this season. Andre Pallante ended the first half of the season in cold form.
- Eduardo Rodríguez O17.5 Outs Recorded (-139): Rodríguez has been an efficient workhorse this season. Backed up by one of the league’s best defenses, he’s finished the sixth inning in 13 of his 19 starts.
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks prediction, preview
The All-Star break came at a welcome time for the Cardinals, as prior to the intermission, they’d lost 14 of their last 24 games to fall from a peak of nine games over .500 to, at one point, just four. St. Louis made an 11-game improvement relative to .500 from last season to this season despite only jumping from sixth-to-last to ninth-to-last in OPS, though at least rookie JJ Wetherholt has been the best defensive second baseman in baseball and Jordan Walker went from one of baseball’s worst players to an All-Star and Home Run Derby winner. The Cardinals have had the 11th-best rotation in baseball, thanks in part to Michael McGreevy’s and Kyle Leahy’s breakouts, and closer Riley O’Brien leads the National League in saves. Overall, although only two of St. Louis’ 11 pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched have a sub-3 ERA, only three have an ERA over 4.
The Diamondbacks came out of the gates hot, sitting at 31-24 through May 27, but they went on a losing run for most of June and only entered the All-Star break above .500 because they surprisingly swept the league-leading Los Angeles Dodgers in their final series before the break. After finishing with a top-five offense in both 2024 and 2025, Arizona has struggled mightily on that side of the ball this season, posting the sixth-worst OPS so far, as while catcher Gabriel Moreno has had the best offensive season of his career, Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo have both taken steps back. Instead, the Diamondbacks have been better defensively, with the 17th-best rotation and 13th-best bullpen. Their rotation hasn’t been great beyond Rodríguez, and Paul Sewald has been worth negative value, but five of their set-up men have sub-3 ERA’s and Juan Morillo (3.05) is just above that number.
Pallante had a rough start in his final outing before the All-Star break, giving up eight hits and six earned runs in five innings of work, the second time in his final three starts of the first half in which he allowed at least five. Overall, though, his ceiling is high, as he’s given up two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 18 starts. Advanced stats are fairly kind to him; he has a 63rd-percentile expected ERA and a 70th-percentile pitching run value. Pallante especially excels at inducing ground balls, which is already one of Arizona’s weaknesses as is. Plus, one of the Diamondbacks’ weaknesses should help mitigate Pallante’s; he struggles to induce chases, and they chase at the eighth-highest rate. His inability to produce whiffs might be an issue against a team with excellent contact skills, especially since the Cardinals have been a below-average fielding team, but at least he’s been good at limiting hard contact. He should have the slight split edge, as although Arizona has been somewhat more effective at home, he’s been much better on the road.
Rodríguez should have the advantage in the starting pitching matchup. He’s been an average starter for most of his career, but he took an unexpected leap in 2026, earning his first All-Star nod and sporting a 2.29 ERA so far. Advanced numbers don’t back up his sterling surface-level resume, though; he ranks in just the 18th percentile in expected ERA (5.10) and the 16th in expected batting average (.267). In particular, Rodríguez has really struggled to induce whiffs, something that St. Louis — which has above-average bat-to-ball skills as is — is unlikely to mitigate. He’s also hasn’t done a great job preventing barrels, but the Cardinals have barreled at a below-average rate. Overall, I think his form is sustainable, as he can’t help the fact that the Diamondbacks have had among the league’s best defenses. He’s been particularly elite at home, pitching to a 1.89 ERA across his 10 starts at hitter-friendly chase field, although St. Louis has been better on the road.
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Best Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (-126)
Despite what the advanced stats suggest, it’s hard to ignore Rodríguez’s 2.29 ERA, and his start-to-start ceiling is higher than Pallante’s. Plus, I trust Arizona’s bullpen more than I do the Cardinals’.
Strong Lean: Eduardo Rodríguez O17.5 Outs Recorded (-139)
Given that neither pitcher generates many whiffs, this game should go quickly. The Diamondbacks’ elite defense and the fact that St. Louis has seen the 10th-fewest pitches per plate appearance should allow Rodríguez to finish the sixth inning for the 14th time in 20 starts.
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