Minnesota reaches Sunday’s rubber match at 49-50 after Saturday’s 6-2 loss ended a three-game winning streak, while Chicago sits at 55-43 after winning six of nine. The Twins have won seven of their last 10 despite playing without Byron Buxton, but Saturday required two Kody Clemens solo homers to produce their entire offense. Chicago answered with Michael Busch’s leadoff homer, Nico Hoerner’s four-hit game, and five runs across the opening three innings. The Cubs average 5.0 runs with a .244 team average, 122 homers, and 70 steals, while Minnesota averages 4.8 runs with a .248 average, 123 homers, and 57 steals. Chicago’s latest 10-game window produced 43 runs, 10 homers, and a .238/.315/.384 line. Minnesota’s recent 119 plate appearances against lefties produced a much stronger .291/.378/.495 line, giving Sunday’s lineup more resistance than its season-long profile suggests. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and the Minnesota Twins.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cubs vs. Twins prediction, preview
Zebby Matthews owns a 4-6 record, 4.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 54 strikeouts, 18 walks, and seven quality starts through 11 outings. He completed at least six innings nine times, but his last two starts produced eight runs across 10.2 innings. Matthews’ 4.61 xERA reflects 90.3 mph contact, 12.5% barrels, and a fastball that lost immediate shape before the break. His four-seam averaged 95.2 and 95.1 mph before falling to 94.3 in his latest start, while his zone rate declined from 47.2% to 45.6% to 44.1% and his called-strike-plus-whiff rate collapsed from consecutive 29% performances to 21.6%. Opponents own a .266/.303/.511 line and .347 wOBA during their second look, then Matthews’ strikeout rate falls to 14.7% with a 10.7% walk rate during the third. Shota Imanaga counters with a 5-8 record, 4.17 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 105 strikeouts, and a 3.77 xERA built on a .301 xwOBA and 36.6% hard contact. Imanaga owns a 2.81 ERA, 31 strikeouts, and five homers allowed across his latest 32 innings, with stable 91.7–92.0 mph velocity and consecutive first-pitch strike rates near 74%. His latest mix featured 41% splitters, 24% four-seamers, 22% sweepers, and 7% sliders. Opponents carry a .670 OPS during their first look and .603 during their second before exploding to a 1.063 OPS and .459 wOBA on the third trip.
Chicago can pressure Matthews through Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Alex Bregman, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Pedro Ramírez, Carson Kelly, and Dansby Swanson. Suzuki owns a .384 wOBA against the right-handed fastball, cutter, sinker, and changeup family, Swanson sits at .394, Happ at .355, Crow-Armstrong at .353, Kelly at .344, and Busch at .341. Suzuki has sustained a 12% barrel rate across both his last 25 and last 50 balls in play. Happ carries 48% hard contact across his latest 25, Swanson sits at 44%, Busch at 36%, and Hoerner combines a 90.2 mph rolling exit velocity with a 7% whiff rate against Matthews’ primary non-breaking pitches. Bregman’s latest 25 balls averaged 91.1 mph, while his 12% whiff rate gives Chicago another traffic-producing bat. Crow-Armstrong’s recent 84.0 mph average and Swanson’s zero barrels across his latest 25 temper the power projection, but Hoerner’s four-hit Saturday and Busch’s 12th homer give the lineup usable current form. Suzuki owns a .272 average with 15 homers and 48 RBI, Swanson has driven in 58, and Crow-Armstrong’s 25 steals add scoring pressure against Ryan Jeffers’ below-average throwing metrics.
Minnesota’s lineup loses Buxton’s .271/.328/.575 production and 25 homers, but its middle remains dangerous against Imanaga. Kody Clemens owns a 93.8 mph average exit velocity, 56% hard-hit rate, 16% barrel rate, and 21-degree launch angle across his last 50 balls in play before homering twice Saturday. Josh Bell sits at 92.3 mph, 48% hard contact, and 14% barrels during the same window. Ryan Jeffers carries a 90.2 mph average, 42% hard contact, and 14% barrels, while Victor Caratini owns a 91.8 mph average with 10% barrels. Royce Lewis returns to the lineup after a hamstring concern with 16% barrels and a 24.5-degree launch angle across his latest 25 balls. Minnesota has also handled left-handed fastballs: Austin Martin owns a .416 wOBA against the four-seam/sinker family, Jeffers .470, Clemens .392, Luke Keaschall .414, Brooks Lee .430, and Ryan Kreidler .345. Imanaga’s splitter remains the counter, with Matthews’ breaking-ball results offering Chicago’s equivalent escape path. Martin, Keaschall, and Kreidler have recent averages between 81.2 and 86.5 mph, leaving Minnesota’s threat concentrated between Jeffers and Clemens rather than spread across all nine spots.
Twins vs. Cubs pick, best bet
Chicago’s bullpen prevents its starting-pitching advantage from becoming automatic. The group ranks in the bottom third of the league and remains without Daniel Palencia, while Brad Keller, Ryan Webb, Trent Thornton, Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, and Zac Rosscup carry uneven strikeout, command, and contact profiles. Webb owns a 2.98 ERA with a 3.76 FIP, but Thornton’s 2.40 ERA sits beside a 5.07 FIP, Pomeranz carries a 5.79 ERA and 6.96 FIP, and Thielbar owns a 4.40 ERA with a 5.51 FIP. Aaron Civale returns after Chicago acquired him Sunday, although his immediate availability and role remain uncertain. Minnesota’s bullpen should have most of its preferred middle options available, but Mike Paredes threw 40 pitches Saturday and appears unavailable. Jorge Alcala and Brock Stewart are gone from the old late-game structure, leaving arms such as Yennier Cano, Louis Varland, Kody Funderburk, Michael Tonkin, and Griffin Jax to protect the middle innings. The expected plate assignment belongs to Shane Livensparger, whose 16 games have averaged 8.31 runs, 1.9 homers, 16.6 strikeouts, 6.3 walks, and a 64.31% strike rate. His 6-4 over record creates no meaningful under boost.
Wrigley brings approximately 76 degrees, 60% humidity, widespread haze, and northeast wind blowing predominantly inward at 9–10 mph with gusts reaching 15–18. That wind removes distance from marginal fly balls without eliminating the liners, grounders, and opposite-field contact available against Matthews. Chicago’s -175 moneyline requires a 63.6% hit rate for a team carrying bullpen uncertainty, while -1.5 at +129 demands margin in a game projected near seven runs. Cubs over 4.5 at +114 requires stronger sequencing than their recent barrel distribution supports. Minnesota under 3.5 at -140 runs into its .873 recent OPS against lefties, Imanaga’s severe third-pass decline, and Chicago’s compromised relief depth. Under 7.5 at -112 retains weather support but leaves little protection against Matthews’ fading fastball or either bullpen. Chicago over 7.5 hits at -135 needs 57.4% before hold, survives stranded traffic and wind-suppressed power, and attacks Matthews’ .347 second-pass wOBA with six Cubs carrying at least a .341 wOBA against his primary fastball-family offerings.
Best bet: Cubs over 7.5 team hits at -135, playable through -145.
Projected score: Cubs 4, Twins 3.
Best bet: Cubs o7.5 total hits (-135) vs. Twins
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