10 years ago, the Chicago Cubs ended the longest championship drought in sports history, winning their first title in 108 years, and they made it back to the League Championship Series the following season. After losing in the NL Division Series last season, the Cubs near the All-Star break with a reasonable chance at making another playoff run in 2026.
At 1:35 p.m. this afternoon, Chicago will attempt to finish off a sweep of the AL East cellar-dwelling Baltimore Orioles as it looks to keep pace with the division rival Milwaukee Brewers, who have become the NL Central powerhouse as of late.
The Cubs will start David Peterson in the series finale, and the Orioles will counter with Trevor Rogers.
Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs at Orioles Best Bets
- Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (-125): Sometimes, it’s just as simple as analyzing the starting pitching matchup, and as long as his recent hot form continues, Trevor Rogers is just better than David Peterson.
- Over 6.5 Total Extra Base Hits (-125): I’m not saying Baltimore will be able to get to Peterson for 10 runs in 3.2 innings like the St. Louis Cardinals did last Friday, but he’s had a horrific season, and even at his best, Rogers has always been prone to giving up pulled fly balls. That and a hitter-friendly park in Camden Yards could make all the difference.
Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles prediction, preview
Chicago’s season has been one of runs; after starting 7-9, it had stretches of 20-3 and 7-22 before bouncing back by going 18-6 in its last 24 games. At their best, the Cubs are contenders; at their worst, they’re fodder. In the aggregate, Chicago has had a strong offense, ranking fifth by OPS both overall and over the course of its latest hot streak, and Pete Crow-Armstrong leads all of baseball in WAR. In fact, he’s just one of eight Cubs with at least 100 plate appearances and an OPS+ north of 100. Chicago’s strong offense has allowed it to win in spite of a pitching staff that ranks just 22nd in rotation ERA, with no pitcher besides the currently injured Ben Brown starting at least five games and sporting a sub-4 ERA. The Cubs’ bullpen has also been mediocre, ranking 14th in baseball in ERA. They’ll likely be looking for pitching help at the trade deadline.
Baltimore, meanwhile, missed the playoffs last season after two seasons in the tournament, and it almost certainly won’t be re-joining the fray this season. The Orioles have been below .500 since mid-April and haven’t won more than three games in a row all season, and their litany of highly-touted prospects just haven’t quite panned out. Baltimore ranks just 17th in OPS, in part because 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday has produced just 0.1 WAR because of injuries and poor hitting, though at least offseason signing Pete Alonso has mostly done his job, posting an OPS+ in line with his career average. Plus, much as they did last season, the Orioles’ pitchers have struggled, as they rank in the bottom 12 by both rotation and bullpen ERA. Only two starters have a sub-4 mark, and Anthony Nunez, the team’s fourth-most used reliever, has a 5.20 mark. Given its record, Baltimore could be a seller at the deadline.
To put it mildly, Peterson has not been the answer to Chicago’s pitching woes. The Cubs acquired him from the New York Mets in late June, and he’s made two starts, including a 3.2-inning, 10-run stinker in a loss to the St. Louis Cardinals last Friday. While he still has his flashes — two or fewer earned runs in nine of his 18 starts — his 6.75 ERA speaks for itself. Advanced numbers aren’t much kinder; he ranks in the 16th percentile by expected ERA, the eighth percentile by expected batting average, and the third percentile by pitching run value. In particular, Peterson has struggled to induce whiffs or strikeouts, which could help mitigate some of the Orioles’ biggest flaws. Additionally, he ranks in just the 22nd percentile in average exit velocity, and Baltimore ranks second in the league in that stat. If he wants to escape major damage, he’ll have to continue producing grounders at an elite rate, but the Orioles have been slightly above-average at getting the ball up, and Camden Yards is one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks. It doesn’t help that Peterson has been worse on the road throughout his career and Baltimore has been significantly better at home, though if he’s looking for a silver lining, at least the platoon splits are in his advantage.
Rogers hasn’t had a great season either. He’s had two elite seasons, when he posted a 2.64 ERA across 25 starts as a rookie with the Miami Marlins in 2021 and his 18-start, 1.81-ERA campaign last season, but he’s had an ERA north of 4 in his other seasons, including a 4.70 mark in 16 starts this season. To be fair, Rogers has been better as of late, posting a 1.77 ERA since the start of June, but his nine-start stretch of allowing two or more earned runs in each game was unconvincing. All in all, his Statcast profile is a mixed bag: he ranks in the 48th percentile in expected ERA and below the median in eight of the the 12 categories, but he’s excelled at producing chases, which should help him against Chicago’s patient plate approach. The key for him will be keeping the ball down, as he ranks in just the 29th percentile in ground ball rate and the Cubs have been elite at avoiding grounders. He should have generally favorable splits, as he has a solid 3.30 ERA in 18 career starts at Camden Yards, while Chicago has been worse on the road. Like with Peterson, though, the platoon splits aren’t in his advantage, as the Cubs have been better against lefties.
Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles pick, best bet
Best Bet: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (-125)
It’s hard to look past the Chicago’s 18-6 record in its last 24 games, and its offense is definitely better than the Orioles’, but I have more reason to trust Rogers than I do Peterson, especially given both pitchers’ recent form. The Cubs’ bullpen might be moderately better than Baltimore’s, but not by much.
Strong Lean: Over 6.5 Total Extra Base Hits (-125)
Both pitchers can be prone to the occasional damage, and conditions today in Baltimore should be relatively warm. Rogers has had a below-average pulled fly ball rate in every year of his career except one, and while Peterson is a ground ball pitcher, he’s been extremely gettable in general.
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