Closing down tonight’s three-game WNBA slate, the Indiana Fever will take on the Los Angeles Sparks.
The Fever have gotten off to a 12-8 start to the season, while the Sparks enter with an 8-11 record. These two teams have faced off twice already this season, resulting in 87-78 and 111-87 victories by Indiana.
The Fever enter as 7.5-point road favorites with -265 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sparks hold +215 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 182.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Fever at Sparks matchup.
Fever at Sparks Preview
The Indiana Fever are off to a 12-8 start to the season. They enter this matchup coming off back-to-back wins, including last Saturday against this Sparks team, and have won seven of their last 10 matchups. On the season, Indiana has gone 10-10 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 11 of 20 matchups.
Kelsey Mitchell headlines the production on the season, averaging 21.9 points and 2.7 assists per game. Caitlin Clark is not far behind with 21.2 points and a team-high 8.2 assists. Clark has battled a back injury this season but has been upgraded to probable ahead of tonight’s matchup after missing the past two games. The two-time All-Star last played on June 24th against the Phoenix Mercury. Aliyah Boston is the lone other player listed on the injury report and is considered questionable with a lower right leg injury. Boston is posting averages of 17.1 points and 8.6 rebounds per game on the season. Sophie Cunningham, Damiris Dantas, Monique Billings, Tyasha Harris, Myisha Hines-Allen, and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough also play key roles on the team.
Indiana leads the WNBA in scoring at 93.5 points per game. The Fever also rank first in offensive rating, first in pace, third in field-goal percentage, and third in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 88.9 points per game against the Fever, which ranks 12th in the league. Indiana also ranks eighth in defensive rating and ninth in opponent field-goal percentage, while allowing the fewest three-point attempts per game.
The Los Angeles Sparks enter with an 8-11 record on the year. They are looking to snap a three-game losing streak and have dropped five of their past six matchups. On the season, Los Angeles has gone a WNBA-worst 6-13 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 13 of 19 games played.
Kelsey Plum headlines the production for the Sparks, posting averages of 23.9 points and 6.4 assists per game on the season. However, Plum will miss tonight’s game due to a lower left leg injury. Cameron Brink is the lone other player on the injury report and will miss tonight’s matchup due to a left ankle injury. Nneka Ogwumike contributes 16.1 points and 8.7 rebounds, while Dearica Hamby and Rae Burrell also average in double figures. Ariel Atkins, Erica Wheeler, and Kate Martin also play notable roles.
The Sparks are scoring 87.5 points per game as a team, which ranks seventh in the WNBA. Los Angeles also ranks ninth in offensive rating, sixth in field goal percentage, and 13th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring a WNBA-worst 93.6 points per game against Los Angeles. They also rank last in defensive rating, last in opponent field goal percentage, and eighth in opponent three-point percentage while allowing the third-most perimeter shots per game.
Fever at Sparks Pick, Best Bet
This is a matchup between the WNBA’s most impressive offense and the worst defense in the league. Los Angeles’ season outlook has been greatly diminished by defensive issues, and the Sparks have failed to find a way to correct their problems to this point. The Fever put forth an 111-point scoring performance when they faced off two games ago on June 27th. This was only the third-highest scoring output by the Fever this season, and the Sparks have conceded as many as 125 points in a game this year.
The Fever have come out victorious in both matchups against the Sparks this year and covered the spread in each game. The most recent win came while Caitlin Clark was sidelined due to injury. Clark’s presence on the court changes the outlook for everyone on the floor, with her gravity opening up shots for others.
With Kelsey Plum sidelined and the Sparks proving unable to get stops at any sort of regular rate, expect this matchup to get out of control in favor of the Fever. Indiana has not played to its peak level on the season just yet, but they have provided far more reason for belief compared to the Sparks. Clark’s return should provide a jolt of life, and this is as ideal a matchup as she could ask for defensively.
It is difficult to see a pathway to Los Angeles slowing down Indiana’s elite offense, so expect the Fever to cruise to 100+ points for the second straight time against the Sparks and the eighth time this season. Without Plum, count on the Sparks’ offensive attack to fail to reach the necessary level to keep this game competitive. 7.5 points is a comfortable spread based on the context of this matchup, especially with the margin of victory coming by nine and 24 in the first two victories by the Fever. Expect more of the same tonight and buckle up for a strong scoring output by Indiana to pave the way to a comfortable win.
Best Bet: Indiana Fever -7.5 (-105)
Bonus: I am also backing Kelsey Mitchell to record over 23.5 points as part of my top player props which you can read about on DK Network here.
