It’s Independence Day, and what better way to celebrate than with the great American pastime? The MLB brings us a full slate of 15 games this July 4, with DraftKings’ featured window including 11 of those matchups with a contest lock time of 7:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s sort through the madness on the diamond to find some studs and values for your lineups.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $150K Independence Day Special [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LA Dodgers vs. SD Padres ($10,600): The second-priciest pitcher on the board today, there’s a reason Yoshinobu Yamamoto comes in with such an expensive salary. This is a dream matchup, frankly. The Dodgers’ star arm starts against the Padres, who are 27th in OPS this season against right-handed pitching with a slash line of .222/.302/.377. They’re also dead last in BABIP vs. RHP at .262 with a 23.1% K% that’s not overly high, but does rank 21st of the 30 MLB clubs.
As for Yamamoto, he’s 8-5 this year with a 2.67 ERA and 0.89 WHIP that rank seventh and second among qualified pitchers in the NL. His 90 strikeouts in 97.2 IP aren’t stellar, but they are good for a respectable 24.1% K% and a 5.1% BB% is elite. He averages 21.3 FPPG this season and has an awesome ceiling up in the 30-point range. In two games against San Diego this year, Yamamoto has gone 7.0 and 6.0 innings with a combined three earned runs allowed on eight hits, two of which went for homers, plus 12 strikeouts.
Value
Brandon Young, BAL Orioles at CIN Reds ($6,800): One of the best pitcher values available, Brandon Young enters Saturday with a 6-2 record, a 3.48 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He’s been very solid overall this season, even if he’s not striking batters out much with just 57 in 72.1 IP for an 18.3% K%. The opposing Reds are 22nd in OPS against right-handed pitching at .665 with a .230/.298/.367 slash line. Plus, they have a 25.9% K% in the split, which means that perhaps his 91st-percentile chase rate could get him an extra punchout or two. While Young’s hard-hit rate is below average, Cincinnati also has just a .137 ISO against fellow right-handers. With 14.4 FPPG and 17.8 or more in three of his last four starts, he’s positioned nicely for a positive day.
INFIELD
Stud
Brice Turang, MIL Brewers at ARI Diamondbacks ($5,300): There are few players I like more in the infield today than Brice Turang. The Brewers’ standout averages 9.5 FPPG this season and gets an ideal matchup while on a hitting streak of six straight games. The middle infielder is slashing .263/.361/.451 for an .813 OPS, tallying 61 runs, 51 RBI and 12 home runs on the campaign. He’s struck out a good bit, but he also has a 13.4% BB% and gets on base at a high rate in one of the best lineups in baseball. The lefty-hitting Turang is also fantastic against right-handed pitching, slashing .295/.396/.520 for a .915 OPS. He gets a date with Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly, who’s been one of the worst pitchers in the sport this year with a 5.84 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, a first-percentile barrel rate and 24th-percentile average exit velocity. Turang and his teammates could eat in this one.
Value
Masyn Winn, STL Cardinals at CHI Chubs ($3,700): While he’s hitting just .253 with a .672 OPS this year, there’s a ton of upside to Masyn Winn tonight. The Cardinals’ shortstop has put up 14, 15 and 25 fantasy points in three of his last four outings despite homering just once in those three games. He averages 6.8 FPPG this year with a .253 AVG and .672 OPS, but the results against lefty pitchers are much better — we’re talking about a .309/.375/.412 slash line and a .787 OPS. Cubs starter Shota Imanaga has a low WHIP, but he’s a lefty and Winn is 5-for-14 with a homer and a pair of RBI against him across their careers. You can do far worse than this pick, particularly with St. Louis 11th in WRC+ against southpaws and potentially helping Wynn cross the plate.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Jake Bauers, MIL Brewers at ARI Diamondbacks ($4,600): We’re stacking a little bit here with another Brewer against Kelly and the D-Backs. Jake Bauers averages 8.6 FPPG and can slot in at 1B or an OF spot, so that positional versatility makes him a little more valuable to us tonight. We talked earlier about how bad Kelly has been on the bump, so just to further emphasize why we want another Milwaukee lefty in our lineup, the hurler has a 1.69 WHIP with 52 hits, 24 walks and 11 homers allowed to southpaw hitters. Bauers can take advantage of after slashing .280/.388/.528 for a .916 OPS with 43 runs, 41 RBI and 13 homers vs. right-handers. He also has four games of 12+ fantasy points in his last 10 outings and averages 11 FPPG against Arizona so far this year.
Value
Owen Caissie, MIA Marlins at Athletics ($3,700): Lefty-hitting outfielder Owen Caissie has been showing some upside lately. He averages 6.1 FPPG on the campaign but has 8+ FPPG in four of his last six outings. Yes, his overall numbers aren’t great with a .238/.295/.449 slash line for a .743 OPS heavily held up by his slugging percentage, but there’s plenty to like against Aaron Civale tonight at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. Caissie has a .473 slugging mark with all 11 of his homers against right-handers like Civale, who is surrendering a 4.92 ERA and 1.57 WHIP this season with 15th-percentile average exit velo and a 22nd-percentile barrel rate. With his numbers and the ballpark conditions, Caissie is poised to put up numbers.
