We’ve got a six-game slate for Thursday’s MLB action.
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox ($10,500) — Cristopher Sanchez is the best pitcher on the slate, and he’s been awesome for most of the year. But Washington isn’t a great matchup, as the Nationals have been one of the best teams against left-handed pitching this season. That’s why I’m going down to Schlittler, who’s no slouch in his own right. He averages 97.8 mph on the fastball and is posting a 2.13 FIP with a 24.7% K-BB% through 95 innings. The average allowed exit velocity is 87.9 mph with a 6.7% barrel rate. Now he faces a Boston team that ranks 28th in both ISO and wRC+.
Value
Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros ($7,000) — Melton has a 2.56 ERA in 31.2 innings and has put up double-digit FPTS in all five starts, with two over 20 FPTS. His fastball averages 95.8 mph, while the barrel rate is 6.3%. Now for the bad. His BABIP is only .169, while the strand rate is 97.5%, so he’s been extremely lucky so far. The 5.41 FIP shows that. The K-BB% is only 8%, and he’s allowed six home runs. Still, he’s been solid against righties with a 3.20 FIP, a 4.6% K-BB%, and a 265 BABIP. He’ll need better fortune against lefties. He has posted a .109 BABIP and a 6.53 FIP. Houston has one of the best lefties in the game, Yordan Alvarez, though the rest of the lineup is mostly righties.
INFIELD
Stud
Paul Goldschmidt, New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox ($4,300) — Goldschmidt is slashing .293/.353/.537 with a 19.8% strikeout rate and .245 ISO. He has 12 home runs, 28 runs, 37 RBIs, and a stolen base in 207 plate appearances. Against left-handed pitching, he has posted a whopping 237 wRC+ and a .342 ISO. Now he faces Connelly Early, who has a 5.04 FIP and 12% K-BB% against righties. Ten of his 14 home runs allowed have come off the bat of a righty. As I was writing this, Goldschmidt homered twice — bringing his total up to 14 — off Tarik Skubal on Wednesday.
Value
Colt Keith, Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros ($2,900) — Keith’s numbers don’t look great. Hey, there’s a reason he’s sub-3K. In 225 plate appearances, he has four home runs, 28 runs, 17 RBIs, and four stolen bases. Against right-handed pitching, the wRC+ is only 94 with a .121 ISO. That said, all of his home runs have come against righties. Houston’s Tatsuya Imai has had some struggles with lefties, posting a 5.45 FIP and 8.3% K-BB% against them. Six games ago, Keith put up 50 FPTS on three home runs. That’s obviously not happening again, but he did put up 28 FPTS three games prior, going 2-for-4 with a home run and three RBIs, so he’s on a little heater.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($4,000) — Nootbaar has only appeared in 16 games and accrued 66 plate appearances due to a heel injury. But in the limited sample size, the numbers have been very good. He’s slashing .291/.394/.473 with a 15.2% walk rate, 21.2% strikeout rate, and .182 ISO. The BABIP is an elevated .350, so he’s been fortunate, but the Statcast numbers are legit — 94.6 mph average exit velocity, 11.9% barrel rate and 74.1 mph bat speed. Against right-handed pitching, the wRC+ is 142. Zac Gallen has a 5.26 FIP and 3.7% K-BB% against lefties.
Value
Nathan Church, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($3,000) — Yup, we’re stacking against Gallen. Church has five home runs, 25 runs, 20 RBIs, and five stolen bases in 198 plate appearances. The average exit velocity is only 85.9 mph, while the launch angle is only 9.4 degrees. The barrel rate isn’t bad, though at 9.2%. All five of his home runs have come against right-handed pitching, with him posting a 114 wRC+ and a .176 ISO in those matchups.
