Division rivals are set to clash tonight at Citi Field. The Phillies (84-68) are angling for a playoff run, currently holding the National League’s second wild card spot. It’s a different story for the last place Mets (69-83), mathematically eliminated from reaching the postseason. New York will send out staff ace Nolan McLean against their old school rivals. Can Philadelphia pick up a road win this evening in Queens?
The Mets are favorites (-132) over the Phillies; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Philadelphia and New York on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Mets pick, best bet today
- Phillies vs. Mets under 8.5 runs (-127): The Mets have looked off against quality right-handers, which Nola qualifies as. On the other side, an already inconsistent Phillies offense now faces a hurler that has their number in McLean. On paper, this has all the makings of a pitcher’s duel.
Phillies vs. Mets prediction, preview
Aaron Nola will take the mound tonight for Philly, making his 31st start of the season. It’s been another middling season for the veteran. Over 161.1 innings, he’s on the hook for a 4.69 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 165 strikeouts (9.2 K/9). However, the former All-Star has looked like a much improved pitcher over the past few weeks. Nola has notched a 2.47 ERA and 1.18 WHIP during his last eight outings. The 33-year-old’s recent performance shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. A 4.07 xERA and .240 xBA suggest the righty is due for some positive regression.
This Mets offense isn’t the worst, however. Since the start of September, they’ve scored the fourth-most runs in all of baseball (85). With that being said, this matchup could prove difficult for the Amazin’s. Their .686 OPS against right-handed pitchers at home ranks as the league’s fifth-worst mark. Nola has held his own in this spot, holding New York to five earned runs over 11.0 innings this season (4.09 ERA). The hurler’s most used pitch is the curveball (33%). Against that offering, Mets batters have recorded a dismal .199/.235/.353 slash line.
McLean is on the bump for New York this evening. It’s been a stellar campaign from the rookie, already New York’s undisputed ace. Through 166.2 innings (29 starts), he’s delivered a 3.24 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 184 strikeouts (9.9 K/9). A look under the hood proves that its’ no fluke. McLean sits within the 66th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, fastball velocity, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate. If there’s a weakness for the 25-year-old, his command can be a bit shaky at times (3.6 BB/9). He’s walked four or more batters in three of his last five appearances.
Fortunately for McLean, the Phillies aren’t the most disciplined lineup. They’re averaging 3.20 walks per game, tied for seventh-lowest in the majors. This offense still poses plenty of problems, especially in the power department. However, New York’s hurler has done a solid job at limiting the long ball (0.9 HR/9). In fact, he’s been nothing short of dominant in this spot. Over three career meetings with Philadelphia (19.1 IP), McLean has allowed one earned run (0.47 ERA). In addition, the Phillies are averaging a National League-worst 4.05 runs per game on the road.
Best Bet: Phillies vs. Mets under 8.5 runs (-127)
Nola seems to have turned a corner, looking like his old self since the start of August. New York’s lineup has some star power, but right-handers tend to get the best of this matchup. As for McLean, he’s been near-perfect throughout his career against the Phillies. Philadelphia’s inability to score runs on the road makes things even more difficult. Expect a low-scoring affair this evening at Citi Field.
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