Cristiano Ronaldo’s sixth and presumably final World Cup didn’t exactly get off to a dream start last Wednesday, as he put all three of his shots off target as DR Congo managed to steal a point from Portugal that surely felt like three. He’ll have to hope for better on Tuesday when the Seleçao das Quinas face off against Uzbekistan.
The match will kick off at 1 p.m. ET in Houston. Neither team can clinch a spot in the knockouts with a win, but a defeat and a Leopards win against Colombia would eliminate the White Wolves from the competition. Three points for Portugal would put Roberto Martínez’s men in position to win the group by defeating Los Cafeteros on the final day.
The Seleçao das Quinas are -550 favorites to claim all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Uzbekistan is +1600. There are +650 odds that the teams will draw.
Below, I’ll break down this do-or-die matchup for Portugal and provide my favorite bet.
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan Best Bet:
- Portugal O6.5 Corners (-130): Portugal played about the worst possible match it could’ve against DR Congo, but the Leopards are a much stronger side than Uzbekistan, which might park the bus even more than the Central Africans did. The Seleçao das Quinas are so thoroughly favored that I don’t see value on the game lines, but I expect a steady stream of Abdukodir Khusanov blocks out of play.
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan prediction, pick
There are no such thing as moral victories and defeats, but if there were, Wednesday’s draw would’ve unequivocally been the latter for the Seleçao das Quinas, who were widely considered one of the tournament favorites. They looked disinterested for much of the game and couldn’t get much going in the attack, getting out-played overall by the Central African side, and to take only a point was extremely disappointing. On the other hand, the White Wolves’ loss against Colombia, in which they equalized in the 60th minute and were in it until the final header of the game, could’ve effectively been a moral victory until Los Cafeteros’ late goal. Such has been the tale of this World Cup; giants have disappointed and minnows have over-performed, and chaos has ensued.
Solely looking at each team’s squad, this shouldn’t be close. Portugal has arguably the world’s best left-back in Nuno Mendes and three of its best midfielders in Vitinha, João Neves, and Premier League player of the Year Bruno Fernandes, with the greatest goal scorer of all time, Cristiano Ronaldo, leading the line. However, the Seleçao das Quinas didn’t perform as a team against the Leopards, managing only seven shots and 0.65 expected goals, and Fernandes and Bernardo Silva missed Ronaldo several times in the first half alone. They distributed the ball clinically, completing passes at the highest rate, but they couldn’t make their chances count in front of goal. Additionally, despite Mendes’ strong performance, Portugal allowed DR Congo to generate 0.87 expected goals from eight shots, including the equalizing header from a set piece. The Seleçao das Quinas ranked fourth-to-last in ground duel win rate and recorded among the fewest tackles, blocks, interceptions, and clearances, though their possession dominance is a factor there. Despite pressing with reasonable frequency, Portugal also forced just three high turnovers, and all three of Silva, Tomás Araújo, and Nélson Semedo are on a yellow card, putting them in danger of suspension for a potential group decider against Colombia. Neves’ early header and Francisco Conceição’s inspired play as a substitute aside, it was an unmitigated disaster across the board.
Just as the Leopards did, Uzbekistan will likely sit back and defend, setting up in a 5-4-1 and allowing the Seleçao das Quinas to control the bulk of the possession. Defend they did against Los Cafeteros; 18-year-old Bekhruz Karimov had three interceptions, and midfielder Dostonbek Khamdamov came on at halftime and had two interceptions and two tackles. Its best player, Manchester City’s Abdukodir Khusanov, didn’t even have that great a game, and its back line (goalkeeper Utkir Yusopov aside) still proved hard to break. Though the White Wolves allowed 1.61 expected goals and arguably got lucky that Colombia only put four of its 15 shots on target, they still won aerial duels at high rates and caught Los Cafeteros offsides three times. The issue is that Uzbekistan answered few of the questions in its attack; Abbosbek Fayzullayev scored on a header from point-blank range after a fortuitous deflection, but it produced just 0.18 expected goals on its other seven shots. Between Fayzullayev and Turkish Süper Lig Golden Boot winner Eldor Shomurodov, Fabio Cannavaro’s men might have enough talent to steal a goal in the attack, but their 52.8% pass completion percentage on passes into the final third leaves room to be desired, especially against a theoretically more compact defense. The White Wolves also made among the most errors leading to a shot, and Khusanov can’t play that aggressively because he’s on a yellow card.
The Seleçao das Quinas were so awful against DR Congo that it’s hard to pick them with much confidence, but it wouldn’t be the first time that Portugal has started slowly and picked it up later on. In fact, the Seleçao das Quinas finished third in their 2016 Euros group before going on to win, albeit with an entirely different roster and a much younger and better Ronaldo. They looked better in the second half against the Leopards, as Conceiçao made plenty happen down the right wing, and Fernandes started to look more comfortable down the stretch as well. Uzbekistan should be capable of slowing down Portugal through the air, given its high win rate on aerial duels, but at some point, the Seleçao das Quinas’ magical midfield should be able to get something going, especially against a goalkeeper as weak as Yusopov. On the other end, Portugal should also be able to defend the counter, given that neither of DR Congo’s fast-breaks turned into anything. If nothing else, the Seleçao das Quinas should at least win plenty of corners.
Best Bet: Portugal O6.5 Corners (-130)
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