Cristiano Ronaldo and James Rodríguez have both been mainstays in the global football landscape for more than a decade, while all but the most hardened fans will barely know anything about Uzbekistan or DR Congo. Group K, then, is a group of contrasts, as it features arguably the greatest player of all time and two nations that are a mystery to most.
As such, it’ll be a fascinating group to watch, especially since Portugal could be in line to face Lionel Messi’s Argentina in the Round of 16 if it ends up topping the group.
2026 World Cup Group K Best Bets
- DR Congo to Advance: The FIFA and ELO rankings concur that Uzbekistan and DR Congo are relatively evenly-matched, and White Wolves defender Abdukodir Khusanov might be the best player on the pitch in that match, but the Leopards are deep and well-rounded enough to take all three points.
- Luis Díaz Top Scorer: All attention here will likely be on Cristiano Ronaldo, but I like Díaz’s value better. Ronaldo has been banging home goals for fun in the Saudi Pro League, but Díaz has been similarly effective in the much stronger Bundesliga despite having Harry Kane and Michael Olise on his team.
Group K Preview
Here’s a look at the Group K odds at DraftKings Sportsbook:
Unsurprisingly, the Seleçao das Quinas are fairly comfortable favorites to top the group. Despite winning the Euros in 2016, Portugal arguably has its strongest-ever squad, and it had a pretty good qualifying campaign, taking 13 points from six matches to top its group. The Seleçao das Quinas are headlined by Ronaldo, but their midfield trio might be the strongest in the world, as Vitinha and João Neves both star for back-to-back Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain and Bruno Fernandes just broke the Premier League’s single-season assists record. Additionally, Portugal has arguably the world’s best left-back in PSG’s Nuno Mendes, and Diogo Dalot, Rúben Dias, and Gonçalo Inácio complete a strong back four. Roberto Martínez’s men don’t have quite as much depth on the wings, as Pedro Neto had a bad season for Chelsea and Rafael Leão’s Milan had a brutal second half, but their depth everywhere else is impressive.
Colombia is also built for a deep run. Luis Díaz has been a revelation, recording 29 goal contributions in 32 matches for Bundesliga winners Bayern Münich, and while Rodríguez now plies his trade in the MLS, he proved his quality in South American qualifying, compiling three goals and seven assists as the Cafeteros tied with Uruguay, Brazil, and Paraguay for third. Additionally, Luis Javier Suárez scored 28 goals in the Liga Portugal this season. Further back, Jhon Lucumí, Deiver Machado, and Daniel Muñoz are all regular starters for top-flight teams, and Davinson Sánchez, while nominally the weak link, provides veteran leadership. Colombia can be vulnerable in the back, as Camilo Vargas isn’t quite elite at this point in his career, but it has enough attacking talent to score at will, even against the Seleçao das Quinas.
DR Congo has the next-shortest odds. The Leopards played three extra qualifying matches just to make the tournament, as they finished second in their qualifying group behind Senegal and needed to out-last both Cameroon and Nigeria (the latter on penalties) just to make the inter-confederation playoffs, where they bested Jamaica in extra time. DR Congo has a promising mix of veteran talent and youngsters, as Real Betis’ Cédric Bukambu, Newcastle’s Yoane Wissa, and West Ham United right-back Aaron Wan-Bissaka have all been top flight regulars for years and 21-year-old Noah Sadiki just helped Sunderland secure Europa League football as a newly-promoted side. The Leopards are one of the most defensively sound teams in Africa, allowing one or fewer goals in all but one of their qualifying matches, and they’ll make it tough for anyone.
Uzbekistan is the biggest long-shot. The White Wolves made pretty easy work of Asian qualification, dropping just one match throughout the campaign, playing out four draws with Iran, and giving up more than two goals only once. They’ve also had a slew of pretty impressive friendly results, losing just 2-1 to the Celeste last fall. Uzbekistan isn’t particularly deep, but Eldor Shomurodov finished as the leading goalscorer in the Turkish Süper Lig and Abbosbek Fayzullayev and Oston Urunov each scored four goals in qualifying. The White Wolves thrive defensively; though Xusniddin Aliqulov will miss the tournament with a torn ACL, Abdukodir Khusanov was a regular starter for Manchester City, becoming the first Uzbek player ever to appear in the Premier League, and Rustam Ashurmatov has appeared in South Korea, Russia, and Iran. Odiljon Xamrobekov and Otabek Shukurov form a solid holding midfield duo, and Utkir Yusokov had a good qualifying campaign between the sticks. Fabio Cannavaro, one of just three defenders ever to win the Ballon d’Or, is Uzbekistan’s manager.
On paper, Portugal’s experience should win out and the newcomers should struggle, but there could still be surprises. I’ll lay out how I think the group might play out.
Group K Predictions
Both the top two and the bottom two could be tight. ELO ranks the Seleçao das Quinas only slightly ahead of the Cafeteros and the White Wolves only slightly ahead of DR Congo. Both underdogs will start out with tough games, as Portugal will face the Leopards and Colombia will face Uzbekistan on the first day of matches. It’s possible that, after two matches, the group has two teams on six points and the other two on zero, and all will be to play for on the final day. I’m not confident in who will win the group, though I’d lean towards the Cafeteros for value. I am more sure that DR Congo will be able to keep its goal difference down against the two giants, and its attack is good enough to break the White Wolves’ defense in the final match. I like the Leopards to secure their place in the knockout stage at -120 odds.
With both the Seleçao das Quinas and Colombia more than capable of making deep runs, it’s feasible that the overall Golden Boot winner comes from this group. The winner of the group should also have a pretty easy run to the quarterfinals, facing a third-place side in the Round of 32 and likely the winner of Group B (Switzerland or Canada) in the Round of 16, while the second-place finisher could draw Spain in the Round of 16. Regardless of the path, Ronaldo should be able to finally score his first knockout goal with Neves, Vitinha, and Fernandes feeding balls into the middle. For value, though, I’ll take Díaz at +5000; if the Cafeteros end up winning the group, at least I know for sure that he can score against Argentina, and if Colombia comes second, Spain’s defense might be the shakiest among the top contenders.
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