Last week, the Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles met for a four-game set at Camden Yards. After the sides split those matchups at two apiece, they’re now set to meet again for a three-game series at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. The action begins tonight with first pitch scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Mariners vs. Orioles matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Mariners prediction, preview
Baltimore Orioles
The hunt for the .500 mark continues for the Orioles, who are 34-39 on the year and have now dropped back-to-back outings to go 4-6 over their last 10. The club has upside with their bats for sure, averaging 4.70 runs per game, good for eighth in the MLB. However, that mark does dip to 4.31 on the road, which is worth noting for tonight. A .728 OPS has ticked upwards in recent weeks and is now good for 11th among all teams, and a slash line of .243/.324/.404 is certainly very respectable. That also increases slightly against right-handers like they’ll face tonight, slashing .250/.332/.420 in the split for a .752 OPS. The Orioles’ overall ISO comes in at .161, tied for ninth, and they have 86 homers on the year. While a 23.5% K% is sixth highest, Baltimore does still maintain an 0.43 BB/K ratio thanks to a double-digit BB%.
RHP Brandon Young gets the start for the O’s with a 5-1 record in 10 starts. The 27-year-old has a 3.04 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 42 Ks in 56.1 IP. Meanwhile, the team’s bullpen has been one of the weaker ones in terms of run suppression at an ERA of 4.57, but a 1.34 WHIP and 12.9% K-BB% are both solid enough.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have cooled off a little bit recently and are coming off back-to-back losses at 4-6 over their last 10 matchups. However, they’re still atop the AL West at 37-36 and have a run differential of +20, so it’s not as though disaster has struck with this brief down spell. Seattle produces 4.26 runs per game with an OPS of .713 that slots in at 17th in the MLB. The Mariners slash .237/.316/.397 as a team, and they’ll likely be glad to get a date against a RHP after hitting .246/.325/.420 with a .745 OPS in that handedness split. While just 25th in BABIP at .277, they are 12th in ISO at .160 and have 94 homers this year, eighth most in the MLB. They also have an 0.40 BB/K ratio with a 22.5% K%. One particular stat to note? A .226 AVG with RISP that falls 28th of 30 teams.
RHP Logan Gilbert will start tonight after going 4-4 in 14 appearances. He has a 3.62 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 82 punchouts across 79.2 IP. Gilbert has a quality whiff rate, K% and BB%, but he’s given up plenty of hard hits and barrels. The Mariners’ bullpen has the seventh-best ERA at 3.46 with a 1.33 WHIP and 13.2%.
Orioles vs. Mariners pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Mariners as fairly significant favorites with -157 odds on the Moneyline in Seattle tonight. The Orioles have +130 odds to win outright. The total sits at 7.5 combined runs between these two clubs.
Best Bet: Logan Gilbert & Brandon Young four or fewer combined ER (+100)
For what it’s worth, both of these pitchers looked good in their lone game against each other’s teams during the series last week. Gilbert went six full innings with one earned run allowed on three hits and two walks, striking out five batters. Young also produced an excellent outing with seven shutout innings, two hits allowed and a pair of walks to go with five punchouts. Both of these offenses have upside, sure, but I feel more confident that the starters should play well given their recent form. Young has allowed more than two earned runs in only one start since May 6; Gilbert has been a little more hot-and-cold but has three games without a single earned run since the start of May and one more outing of just one earned run. Between the two of them, they should be able to keep scoring down.
