The Cubs and Giants close the night at Oracle Park with two teams carrying very different kinds of noise. Chicago arrives from Colorado after a 9-3 win, but that box score came after a rough month. The Cubs are 8-22 over their last 30 games and still trying to steady the season. San Francisco had Thursday off after one of the wildest rallies of the year. The Giants erased a 9-1 eighth-inning deficit against Washington, won 11-10, and now get Javier Assad in a rematch less than a week later. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the San Francisco Giants and the Chicago Cubs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Giants vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Assad already gave Chicago 6.1 scoreless relief innings against these Giants after Jameson Taillon left hurt. He allowed one hit, one walk, and struck out five, so San Francisco cannot treat this like a soft landing. The fuller profile still gives the Giants room to attack. Assad enters with a 4.73 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 4.48 xFIP, 8.5% K-BB rate, and 44.4% ground-ball rate. His Statcast page is louder, with a .331 xwOBA allowed, 90.9 mph average exit velocity, and 50.5% hard-hit rate. He has also allowed a 5.74 ERA and .738 OPS as a starter.
San Francisco’s offense has finally given the numbers some current heat. The Giants rank first in MLB in wRC+ over the last two weeks, with a .314 average and .230 ISO. Luis Arraez changes the top of the order with a .327/.361/.441 line and 4.5% strikeout rate. Jung Hoo Lee owns a .338/.372/.457 line, 135 wRC+, and a heater that includes a .564 average across 13 games. Bryce Eldridge is hitting .426 in that same stretch with three homers and 10 RBI. Casey Schmitt adds 15 homers and a .240 ISO behind them.
The rest of the lineup gives the Giants enough ways to reach the fifth run. Rafael Devers has had an uneven season, but he homered during the Washington comeback. Willy Adames brings 11 homers and another right-handed swing against Assad’s sinker-heavy mix. Matt Chapman went 4-for-5 with two homers and three RBI in that same rally. Drew Gilbert and Daniel Susac lengthen the order enough to keep Assad from getting easy resets. San Francisco is also hitting .327/.366/.560 with a .926 OPS over its last 10 games against right-handed pitching.
Cubs vs. Giants pick, best bet
Landen Roupp keeps the Cubs from becoming the better scoring angle. He enters with a 4.00 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 3.38 xFIP, 16% K-BB rate, and 50.6% ground-ball rate. His contact profile is even better, with a .288 xwOBA allowed, 87.7 mph average exit velocity, 30.4% hard-hit rate, and 3.3% barrel rate. Chicago has danger anyway. Pete Crow-Armstrong homered twice off Roupp last week, Ian Happ has 15 homers and a .362 wOBA, Michael Busch owns a .373 OBP, and Seiya Suzuki just hit a grand slam in Colorado.
The bullpen layer keeps this away from a Giants moneyline play. San Francisco’s relief group entered Friday with an MLB-worst 8.74 ERA and 6.69 BB/9 in June. Ryan Walker is back from Triple-A, but that only begins the repair job. Chicago’s bullpen has been steadier lately, though its middle group still carries workload and command risk after the Colorado stop. Oracle Park should keep the game from becoming reckless, with low-60s temperatures and wind out. The sharper path is San Francisco’s offense against Assad and Chicago’s bridge, not a full trust fall on the Giants’ staff.
Best Bet: Giants team total over 4.5 (+114)
Final Score: Giants 6, Cubs 4
Best bet: Giants F5 TT o4.5 runs (+115) vs. Cubs
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