A rematch of last season’s ALDS is on deck tonight in Toronto. The Yankees (41-26) are on a roll, having just swept the Guardians on the road. The same can’t be said for the Blue Jays (33-36), losers in seven of their previous 11 contests. Which of these two rivals will come out on top this evening in Canada?
The Blue Jays are favorites (-114) over the Yankees, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between New York and Toronto on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet today
- Yankees vs. Blue Jays under 8.5 runs (-139): Yesavage has flummoxed New York during his short but successful MLB tenure. That’s without factoring in the absence of Judge from this Yankees lineup. On the other side, Weathers’ greatest weakness is allowing home runs. A power-starved Toronto lineup isn’t equipped to take advantage.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
In this battle between high-octane hurlers, Ryan Weathers will take the hill for the visitors. During an otherwise quiet offseason, New York made a savvy move acquiring the right-hander from Miami. Through 70.0 innings of work this season, he’s delivered a 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 79 strikeouts (10.2 K/9). However, there’s been a few bumps in the road as of late. Weathers has surrendered five earned runs in three of his last four outings. That includes a disappointing showing at home against Toronto on May 18th. Where the 26-year-old struggles most is giving up quality contact. His 11.9% barrel rate sits inside the seventh percentile among qualified starters.
With that being said, the Blue Jays might not be capable of exploiting that weakness tonight. As a unit, this offense is 27th in barrel rate (6.7%), 27th in hard-hit rate (36.6%), 27th in average exit velocity (88.1 MPH) and tied for 30th in xwOBA (.306). Weathers has had some trouble when it comes to giving up the long ball (1.7 HR/9). Unfortunately for Toronto, power has been hard to come by. Offseason pickup Kazuma Okamoto is the only player to slug more than seven home runs. If there’s a positive for the Jays, they’ve struck out at an MLB-low 7.26 times per game. Still, that’s not a big deal when you aren’t hitting the ball well. The potential return of catcher Alejandro Kirk (thumb) could give this group a much-needed spark.
For the Blue Jays, Trey Yesavage will get the nod in this one. After a breakout 2025 postseason, the rookie has continued to pitch well this year. Over eight outings (42.2 IP), he’s put up a 3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 44 strikeouts (9.3 K/9). However, he’s allowed five or more run in two of his last three appearances. Regardless, those outings are likely just a blip on the radar. Per Savant, Yesavage has a sparkling 2.79 xERA, .188 xBA and 29.3% whiff rate. If he can keep walks at a minimum (4.0 BB/9), there’s no reason to expect regression from the right-hander.
It helps that Toronto’s hurler has had major success in this matchup. Over 11.1 innings pitched against New York, postseason included, he has yet to allow a single run. During that time, Trey has surrendered just two hits and one walk while striking out 19 batters. While another masterpiece could be difficult to come by, it’s safe to say the Yankees have been mistifyed by the righty. To make matters worse for the Pinstripes, superstar Aaron Judge (ribs) is on the injured list. The Bronx Bombers are scoring 4.86 runs per game on the road, a drop-off compared to what they average at home (5.39).
Best Bet: Yankees vs. Blue Jays under 8.5 runs (-139)
Even without Judge, the Yankees wield a potent lineup. Still, they haven’t shown an ability to do anything against Yesavage. On the other side, Weathers feels due for a quality start. A Toronto club that doesn’t punish mistakes very often feels like an ideal opponent. Expect another intense, low-scoring game between these familiar foes.
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