Two clubs with postseason potential will meet on Friday at American Family Field. The Phillies (37-31) have salvaged their season, going on a hot streak under interim manager Don Mattingly. Philadelphia now faces one of its toughest challenges yet: a road trip against the NL Central-leading Brewers (41-25). Can Milwaukee kick this weekend series off with a victory tonight?
The Brewers are favorites (-251) over the Phillies, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Philadelphia and Milwaukee on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Brewers pick, best bet tonight
- Brewers -1.5 (-115): The Brewers have the edge just based on the presence of Misiorowski alone. That’s before factoring in the struggles of Painter, one of the National League’s worst pitchers this season. All signs are pointing to a comfortable Milwaukee victory.
Phillies vs. Brewers prediction, preview
On paper, this is a fairly lopsided pitching matchup. Toeing the slab for Philadelphia is talented but inconsistent hurler Andrew Painter. To call this season a disappointment would be underselling it; the right-hander has looked downright abysmal. Over 58.0 innings of work, he’s on the hook for a 6.21 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 47 strikeouts (7.3 K/9). To be fair, the 23-year-old has gotten a bit unlucky. A 4.83 xERA, 7.3 BB% and 34.9% hard-hit rate all suggest some positive regression. Regardless, it’s almost impossible for the Phillies to trust Painter on the mound right now. Last week, he coughed up six earned runs in 4.1 innings against the White Sox.
Painter’s biggest issue has been giving up contact; his 11.2 H/9 ratio is tied with Zac Gallen for the worst mark in baseball. That’s difficult against most lineups, especially a Brewers group that loves working the count. Despite a lack of power, the team is third in runs scored (352), fifth in batting average (.254) and second in on-base percentage (.340). Milwaukee leads the majors with a 49.9% ground ball rate. In comparison, Painter has a 38.5% ground ball rate, placing him at the 32nd percentile among qualified starters. Don’t be shocked if the Brew Crew pushes a handful of singles through the infield tonight.
Even if Painter is on point, this will be an uphill climb for Philadelphia. That’s due to the presence of Jacob Misiorowski, already one of baseball’s elite pitchers. The righty’s numbers this year defy logic. Over 13 starts (78.0 IP), he’s recorded a 1.50 ERA along with a league-leading 0.81 WHIP and 116 strikeouts (13.6 K/9). Since May 1st, Miz has allowed just one (!) earned run while tossing 46.1 innings during that time. He’s managed to stifle quality lineups such as the Astros, Nationals and Yankees as well. Per Savant, the 24-year-old places inside the top 97th percentile in xERA (2.25), xBA (.182), whiff rate (37.8%), strikeout rate (38.5%) and barrel rate (2.5%).
Granted, it’s not as if the Phillies will roll over for anyone at the plate. This lineup contains numerous All-Stars, although as a whole they haven’t lived up to expectations so far. The team comes into this one with a .687 OPS, fourth-worst in the league. To make matters worse, Philadelphia batters are averaging the 12th-most strikeouts per game (8.50). Against a fireballer such as Misiorowski, that isn’t a recipe for success. If this offense is going to do anything tonight, it’ll likely come via the long ball. The Phillies have hit 86 home runs, ninth-most in the majors. Unfortunately, Milwaukee’s ace has only surrendered four dingers this season (0.5 HR/9).
Best Bet: Milwaukee -1.5 (-117)
Is this a ‘fun’ bet? Not quite, but the obvious play is often the correct one. Painter’s struggles don’t bode well heading into a matchup with Milwaukee’s contact-oriented offense. As if that wasn’t enough, Misiorowski has been on another level this season. Philadelphia’s lineup has been unimpressive other than the occasional homer. In front of their home crowd, the Brewers should take care of business on Friday.
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