NL East enemies are set to meet this evening in Queens. The Braves (45-23) have dominated the National League, emerging as a bonafide World Series contender. Despite massive expectations, the Mets (30-38) have fallen flat on their face. Still, it’s early; there’s enough time for New York to turn things around. Picking up a series-opening win over a powerhouse Atlanta squad would be a step in the right direction.
The Mets are favorites (-126) over the Braves, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Atlanta and New York on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Mets pick, best bet today
- Mets ML (-126): Strider, while a quality starter, has had major difficulty with this matchup before. On the other side, McLean is finally getting into a groove. The Braves are missing a pair of big bats in Acuña Jr. and Baldwin as well tonight. As for the Mets, they are essentially a .500 club at home. With a slight edge on the mound, New York is the safer play here.
Braves vs. Mets prediction, preview
For the first time all season, the Braves have dealt with a bit of adversity. The team has gone 5-4 over its previous nine contests, including two straight losses to the White Sox. There’s no reason to panic; even the greatest teams of all time slip up now and then. Still, if you had to play this squad, now might be the time. Looking to get Atlanta back on track tonight will be Spencer Strider. Through 36.0 innings of work, the right-hander has notched a 4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 43 strikeouts (10.8 K/9). A quick look at the advanced metrics suggests some positives for Strider; he has a stellar 3.04 xERA, .178 xBA and 29.1% strikeout rate. However, the righty sits within the 11th percentile with a lackluster 12.8% walk rate.
Hitting has proven difficult for the Mets this season, due in part to bad injury luck. Just two players on the roster with more than 200 plate appearances, Juan Soto and Carson Benge, have notched a wRC+ above 100. Still, there’s some reason for optimism tonight. For starters, Strider has struggled in this spot before. He’s on the hook for a 6.75 ERA over his previous eight meetings with New York. Atlanta’s hurler has thrown a fastball on nearly half of his pitches so far. The Mets have a respectable .241/.320/.399 slash line against the four-seamer this season.
In this marquee pitching matchup, Nolan McLean will toe the slab tonight The rookie is already New York’s undisputed ace. However, he hasn’t been at his best for most of 2026. Over 72.1 innings, the 24-year-old has posted a 3.98 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 82 strikeouts (10.2 K/9). Those aren’t bad numbers by any means, but it’s safe to say he’s capable of more. Much like Strider, a 3.37 xERA, .215 xBA, and 27.4% strikeout rate suggest positive regression in the near future. McLean comes into Friday with momentum; he’s given up two earned runs combined over his last two starts (1.64 ERA).
McLean’s signature pitch is the sinker, which he’s thrown 35% of the time this season. Atlanta batters have an impressive .302 batting average and .469 slugging percentage against that offering. However, it’s difficult to ignore how banged up this group is heading into tonight’s contest. On Tuesday, former MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. (hamstring) was placed on the injured list. He’s joined there by standout catcher Drake Baldwin (oblique). Granted, there’s still several standout bats in this Braves lineup. However, you want every weapon at your disposal against one of the sport’s most talented hurlers.
Best Bet: Mets ML (-126)
On first glance, it seems questionable that the last-place Mets are favorites. However, I feel more confident in McLean than Strider, a pitcher that consistently struggles against New York. It helps that the Mets are far better at home (16-17) than they are on the road (14-21). Injuries could keep the Braves from raking tonight as well. Keeping that in mind, the Amazin’s are the better bet in this one.
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