A pair of playoff hopefuls are on a collision course tonight at Great American Ball Park. The Diamondbacks (34-34) remain competitive, even while playing in the top-heavy NL West. As for the Reds (32-35), they’re looking to earn a second consecutive postseason appearance. Much like Arizona, Cincinnati has to contend with a loaded NL Central division. Which of these two Senior Circuit squads has the advantage on Friday?
The Reds are favorites (-115) over the Diamondbacks, with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Arizona and Cincinnati on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Diamondbacks vs. Reds pick, best bet today
- Diamondbacks vs. Reds over 9.5 runs (-114): Rodriguez, despite some early season success, is due for some negative regression. It’s a similar story for Lodolo, still trying to find his footing after a lengthy injury absence. Both of these lineups rank within the top ten in OPS vs. left-handed pitching. At Great American Ball Park, there could be plenty of scoring tonight.
D-backs vs. Reds prediction, preview
On an otherwise unimpressive Diamondbacks pitching staff, Eduardo Rodriguez has been terrific this season. Through 78.2 innings of work, the left-hander has recorded a 2.52 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 57 strikeouts (6.5 K/9). What’s been most impressive about the 33-year-old has been his consistency. E-Rod has allowed three earned runs or less in ten of his 13 outings so far. In fact, he has yet to surrender more than four runs in a game. With that being said, there’s reason for some skepticism. Per Savant, Rodriguez is vastly out-performing his advanced metrics. Arizona’s hurler sits below the 30th percentile in xERA (4.64), xBA (.265), whiff rate (19.2%) and strikeout rate (17.8%).
A trip to Great American Ball Park, a hitter’s paradise, doesn’t inspire much confidence. With that being said, the Reds haven’t been tearing the cover off of the ball. They’re only averaging 4.27 runs per game this season, good enough for 18th in the majors. To boot, the team is without superstar shortstop Elly De La Cruz (hamstring). With that being said, this group does own the league’s tenth-best OPS against left-handed pitching (.737). Cincinnati has also crushed 48 home runs when playing at GABP. That’s tied for fifth-most by any club when playing at home.
In this battle between southpaws, the Reds will hand the ball to Nick Lodolo. After missing all of April due to injury, the 28-year-old has had some trouble getting back up to speed. Through six starts, he’s produced a 5.51 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 25 strikeouts (6.9 K/9). A dismal 6.64 xERA and .283 xBA makes him a difficult pitcher to trust at the moment. It’s worth noting that Lodolo has performed much better on the road (3.51 ERA) than at home (4.78 ERA) throughout his five-year career. The long ball has been a major issue so far; he’s responsible for a 2.2 HR/9 ratio.
This Diamondbacks offense is somewhat similar to Cincinnati. Despite rostering several standouts, the team is averaging the 19th-most runs per game (4.25). However, just like the Reds, Arizona has been terrific when facing southpaws. The team has produced a .771 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, third-best in baseball. If there’s a single hitter to prioritize on the D-Backs, it’s Corbin Carroll. The outfielder is slashing .280/.372/.548 with 11 homers and seven stolen bases this season.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks vs. Reds over 9.5 runs (-114)
Neither Rodriguez or Lodolo fits the profile of an ace at this point in their careers. While both are quality pitchers, tonight’s matchup isn’t ideal. The Diamondbacks and Reds both excel at hitting left-handers, which is only exacerbated by Friday’s hitter-friendly venue. Don’t be shocked if the ball starts flying out of the park in this one.
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