The Dodgers get Mitch Keller at PNC Park with three of the best total-bases looks in the late window. Keller enters at 5-3 with a 4.81 ERA, 55 strikeouts, and a 1.23 WHIP, while his Statcast profile shows a .333 xwOBA allowed, 39% hard-hit rate allowed, 37.7% sweet-spot rate allowed, and 6.8% barrel rate allowed. That is enough contact vulnerability for Los Angeles’ top bats to turn one mistake into a quick cash.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Best MLB player prop bets today
| Player prop pick | Odds | Why I like it |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases | -135 | Leadoff Ohtani brings a .393 wOBA, .408 xwOBA, 93.5 mph EV, 52.6% hard-hit rate, and 16.1% barrel rate against Keller’s 4.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .333 xwOBA allowed, 39% hard-hit rate allowed, and 37.7% sweet-spot rate allowed. |
| Freddie Freeman 2+ total bases | -110 | Projected third, Freeman owns a .365 wOBA, .376 xwOBA, 91.4 mph EV, 46.4% hard-hit rate, 11.7% barrel rate, and 62 hits against Keller’s .333 xwOBA allowed, 39% hard-hit rate allowed, 6.8% barrel rate allowed, and 12.9-degree launch angle allowed. |
| Andy Pages 2+ total bases | +105 | Projected second, Pages pairs a .366 wOBA, .351 xwOBA, .246 ISO, .208 xISO, 89.8 mph EV, 46.8% hard-hit rate, 10.2% barrel rate, and 36.6% sweet-spot rate with Keller’s 4.81 ERA and .333 xwOBA allowed. |
In-depth analysis below.
Analysis
Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases (-135)
Ohtani leads off against Keller, giving him the first plate appearance of the game and the best volume setup on the Dodgers side. His own profile is still ridiculous: .393 wOBA, .408 xwOBA, 93.5 mph average exit velocity, 52.6% hard-hit rate, and 16.1% barrel rate. He also brings the kind of left-handed lift that fits this matchup, especially against a right-hander allowing a .333 xwOBA and 37.7% sweet-spot rate. Keller’s average exit velocity allowed is only 88 mph, but the shape still leaves room for clean damage because opponents are finding the right launch band often enough. Ohtani does not need a full Dodgers eruption to get there. One double, one homer, or two singles across four-plus plate appearances clears 2+ total bases. That matters with a hitter carrying elite hard-contact volume and immediate access to Keller before the Pirates can play matchup games. The price is heavier than Freeman or Pages, but Ohtani’s contact authority, leadoff role, and power-on-contact profile make him the safest Dodgers piece.
Freddie Freeman 2+ total bases (-115)
Freeman brings the best price among the three Dodgers picks, and the number fits his skill set beautifully. He owns a .365 wOBA, .376 xwOBA, 91.4 mph average exit velocity, 46.4% hard-hit rate, and 11.7% barrel rate. He also has 62 hits this season, which matters for a 2+ total bases prop that can cash without a homer. Freeman does not need to sell out for one swing. He can shoot two singles through Keller’s traffic, drive a ball into the left-center gap, or turn on a sinker that leaks back across the plate. Keller has allowed a .333 xwOBA, 39% hard-hit rate, 37.7% sweet-spot rate, and 6.8% barrel rate, so Freeman’s line-drive profile has room to play. The projected No. 3 spot also gives him a strong first-inning chance behind Ohtani and Pages. That spot can put Keller in the stretch quickly, forcing him to work against one of baseball’s steadiest left-handed bats with men on base. At -113, Freeman has the cleanest price attached to a hitter with this much contact quality.
Andy Pages 2+ total bases (+135)
Pages gives the Dodgers a plus-money total-bases angle from a premium lineup spot. He is projected second, between Ohtani and Freeman, which should give him both plate appearance volume and hittable pitches. Pages has earned that placement with a .366 wOBA, .351 xwOBA, 89.8 mph average exit velocity, 46.8% hard-hit rate, and 10.2% barrel rate. His broader Statcast file also supports the play: .246 ISO, .208 xISO, and a 36.6% sweet-spot rate. That is a strong mix for 2+ total bases because Pages can win with either one extra-base hit or two balls that find grass. Keller’s profile keeps the matchup alive. He has allowed a .333 xwOBA, 39% hard-hit rate, 12.9-degree average launch angle, and 6.8% barrel rate, giving Pages enough room to elevate one mistake. The protection also helps. Keller has to navigate Ohtani before him and Freeman behind him, leaving fewer comfortable pitch-around spots. Pages carries more volatility than the two lefties, but the plus-money price matches the profile. His lineup access and batted-ball quality are strong enough to justify the swing.
Brandon Marsh 3+ HRR (+145)
Jeremy Peña’s 4+ HRR case is built on lineup structure, not slugger theater. He is the first valve in Houston’s best scoring pocket, and that matters against a starter whose current form has created traffic before the damage even arrives. Peña’s own Statcast page is more useful for on-base and conversion than raw impact: .348 wOBA, .366 xwOBA, a 37.7% sweet-spot rate, and enough bat-to-ball stability to keep him connected to the inning. The power indicators are modest, with an 84.9 mph average exit velocity and 4.5% barrel rate, which is exactly why this belongs in HRR instead of total bases. Grayson Rodriguez gives the ladder its pressure point. He has allowed a .423 wOBA, .429 xwOBA, 90.8 mph average exit velocity, 45.2% hard-hit rate, and 12.9% barrel rate, so Houston’s top order should have chances to stack events. Peña can cash this without a heroic swing: single, run, RBI, another run, or two times on base in one crooked inning. At +235, this is a volume-and-conversion bet with the right opponent profile.
