Last night, even the invincible became vincible, and the impossible became reality. In the NBA Finals, the San Antonio Spurs took a 29-point lead in the second half, and in the MLB, the Los Angeles Dodgers had a 6-1 lead in the seventh inning and the Washington Nationals a 10-6 lead in the ninth inning. All three teams ended up losing.
The Dodgers will hope to get some redemption at 6:40 p.m. tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates. If they win, it’ll be the ninth consecutive series in which they’ve managed at least a split.
Justin Wrobleski will toe the rubber for the back-to-back World Series champs, and Mitch Keller will start for the Pirates.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dodgers at Pirates Best Bets
- Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (107): It could be a battle between two strong offenses, but Los Angeles’ bullpen is better than Pittsburgh’s and Justin Wrobleski is in much better form than Mitch Keller.
- Andy Pages 1+ Runs (-112): Pages has scored in each of his last three games, and he sits in a friendly part of the order, right ahead of Freddie Freeman. If he doesn’t drive himself in with a homer against Keller, Freeman likely will.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates prediction, preview
Last night was an outlier for Los Angeles in what has been a dominant season overall, even set against the context of its dynastic era. It marked the Dodgers’ largest blown lead of the season and their 11th blown lead overall, but even after the shocking defeat, they’ve still gone 19-7 over their last 26 games, a 118-win pace across a full season. Unsurprisingly, Los Angeles’ offense has been its biggest strength, as it has scored 365 runs (the second-most in baseball) and posted a league-best .789 OPS. Shohei Ohtani leads the National League in OBP, and Andy Pages paces all of baseball with 56 RBI’s. Additionally, the Dodgers have had baseball’s best rotation, as Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and company have been the only rotation to post a sub-3 ERA. They rank just 13th in bullpen ERA, but given that they won the World Series in 2025 with a unit that ranked 21st in that stat, it’s certainly not a bad place to be, especially if offseason signing Edwin Díaz is healthy by the playoffs.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is over .500 as well, and it looks on track to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016, as it’s currently 0.5 games behind the San Diego Padres for the National League’s final Wild Card spot. The Pirates’ offense has made dramatic jumps; after finishing last season dead last in OPS, Pittsburgh ranks sixth this season, and offseason signing Brandon Lowe (.249/.333/.473 slash line with a team-leading 15 homers) has proven to be one of the winter’s better acquisitions. While some of Pittsburgh’s other best hitters, including rookie Konnor Griffin and speedster Oneil Cruz, are currently injured, Spencer Horwitz, Bryan Reynolds, and Ryan O’Hearn all have OPS’s north of .800. Additionally, the Pirates’ rotation ranks ninth in ERA in part because of 2025 NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes. Like Los Angeles, Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been a relative weakness, as it ranks just 20th in ERA and gave up a 10-run seventh inning on Thursday.
The Dodgers should feel pretty confident about claiming the series behind Wrobleski. The young lefty actually ranks second among the team’s starters behind only Ohtani, pitching to a 2.62 mark across 11 appearances (10 starts), and he’s combined for seven hits and one earned run across 13 innings in his last two starts. Advanced numbers paint a mixed picture of him; thanks to his volume and strong surface-level numbers, he ranks in the 98th percentile in pitching run value, but his xERA is closer towards the middle of the pack (55th percentile). Additionally, he’s really struggled to induce whiffs or strikeouts, though the Pirates — who rank fifth in the league in whiff rate and have struck out the second-most times — could mitigate that. Wrobleski also ranks in the bottom tertile in expected batting average, average exit velocity, hard hit rate, and ground ball rate, and while his tendency to give up hard contact could prove problematic against a powerful Pittsburgh lineup, the Pirates will hit lots of grounders right to Los Angeles’ elite fielders. I’m not expecting perfection from him, given that he has been somewhat worse on the road throughout his career and Pittsburgh has had the league’s third-best home offense this season, but six innings and three earned runs would be reasonable.
Keller started off the season strong, posting a 2.87 ERA through his first eight starts, but since then, he’s fallen off a cliff, giving up six or more earned runs thrice in a five-start span and pitching to an 8.31 ERA across that stretch. Advanced numbers unequivocally prefer Wrobleski; Keller ranks in the 31st percentile in expected ERA and the 11th percentile in expected batting average, which could be an issue against a team with baseball’s highest xBA. Additionally, Keller has really struggled to induce either whiffs or strikeouts, but unlike the Pirates, the Dodgers’ baseline bat-to-ball skills are extremely high. It’s not all bad, though; Keller has done a good job limiting hard hits and barrels, helping to keep one of the league’s most powerful lineups in check, and Los Angeles might not draw as many free passes as usual given Keller’s solid walk rate. The splits are mixed; Keller has a slightly better track record at home, but the Dodgers have actually been better away from hitter-friendly Dodger Stadium.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-107)
Wrobleski should have a fairly significant advantage in the starting pitching matchup over Keller, and Los Angeles’ road offense has been even better than Pittsburgh’s home offense. Additionally, while each bullpen has blown one game so far, I trust the Dodgers’ relievers more in the long run.
Strong Lean: Andy Pages 1+ Runs (-112)
Pages has crossed the plate once in each of his last three games, and I’d expect more offense tonight against a relatively mediocre pitcher. As of late, he’s been hitting second, right ahead of Freddie Freeman, who ranks second on the team in batting average and third in RBI’s.
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