What a brutal season it’s been for the Cubs (34-34). After starting off April red-hot, May and June have been an unmitigated disaster for Chicago. The team’s latest disappointment? Dropping two straight games to the last-place Rockies (26-42). On Thursday afternoon, Colorado will go for a series sweep at home.
The Cubs are favorites (-155) over the Rockies, with the over/under set at 11 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Chicago and Colorado on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Rockies pick, best bet today
- Cubs vs. Rockies over 10.5 runs (-143): Cabrera has been awful this season, allowing plenty of home runs and walks. Feltner has been surprisingly good at home, but advanced metrics suggest he’s been fortunate. At Coors Field, a high-scoring game feels likelier than not this afternoon.
Cubs vs. Rockies prediction, preview
Few players embody Chicago’s struggles more than Edward Cabrera. Acquired this offseason, the former Marlins hurler arrived with plenty of hype. So far, he’s failed to meet expectations. Over 57.2 innings of work, the Dominican has notched a 4.99 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 53 strikeouts (8.3 K/9). He returned from a brief injury hiatus last week, coughing up eight runs over 3.2 innings vs. San Francisco. The right-hander has seen a drop in average fastball velocity, whiff rate and strikeout rate this season. To boot, Cabrera is on the hook for a 1.7 HR/9 ratio, his highest mark since 2021.
Surrendering hard contact and home runs? Not exactly a recipe for success when playing in Denver. It’s no secret that Coors Field is baseball’s most hitter-friendly venue. The Rockies rank fourth in batting average (.262) and seventh in slugging percentage (.418) when playing at home. Leading the charge is catcher Hunter Goodman, on track for his second straight All-Star Game selection. Through 62 games this season, he’s slashing .249/.326/.528 with 18 home runs and 33 RBIs. Colorado’s slugger is supported by Troy Johnston (109 wRC+), T.J. Rumfield (105 wRC+) and Jake McCarthy (100 wRC+).
The downside for the Rockies? Finding quality pitching is a constant struggle. Today’s starter is sixth-year pro Ryan Feltner. During seven starts (32.0 IP) this season, he’s accounted for a 4.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 23 strikeouts (6.5 K/9). Surprisingly, the righty has been far more effective at home (3.24 ERA) than on the road (7.71 ERA). Still, Feltner is likely due for some negative regression. Per Savant, he ranks inside the bottom tenth percentile in xERA (5.69), chase rate (23.0%) and barrel rate (12.5%).
Struggling doesn’t fully describe Chicago’s offense as of late. The team has scored 31 runs over its previous ten games, third-worst in baseball during that stretch. Still, it’s likely just a matter of time until this group returns to respectability. Over their last 15 games, Pete Crow-Armstrong (1.051 OPS), Ian Happ (1.023 OPS) and Michael Busch (.867 OPS) have been raking. To boot, the Cubs have done a better job hitting against right-handers compared to lefties.
Best Bet: Cubs vs. Rockies over 10.5 runs (-143)
Chicago has scored only five combined runs over its first two games at Coors Field. It’s difficult to envision this offense being held in check for a third straight game. With that being said, Cabrera has been a ticking time bomb on the mound. His propensity for handing out walks and homers could be exploited by the Rockies. Expect both of these offenses to deliver on Thursday afternoon.
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