Last season, neither the Atlanta Braves nor the Chicago White Sox made the playoffs. It was the Braves’ first season outside the playoff picture since 2018, while the White Sox have made the postseason just twice since 2009.
Both teams look set to return to the postseason in 2026, as Atlanta has the best record in the National League and Chicago has a fairly firm grasp on a Wild Card spot. The teams’ lone regular season series, in which the White Sox won the opener last night, is unlikely to be a playoff preview given that they couldn’t meet until the World Series, but it’s an exciting matchup between two teams that have defined this season. First pitch of tonight’s middle game is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET.
Chris Sale will take the mound for the Braves, and Davis Martin will crest the hill for Chicago.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves at White Sox Best Bets
- Over 7: Even for two pitchers this talented, 7 is a low bar to clear. The White Sox could keep the powerful Atlanta offense in check when Martin is in the game, but they used two of their four reliable relievers last night and are bound to struggle once Martin exits.
- Chris Sale 8+ Strikeouts: Sale ranks second in career strikeouts per nine innings and has reached the 8-K threshold in five of his last seven starts. Chicago ranks second in the league in strikeouts, and the absent Munetaka Murakami isn’t the only reason.
Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox prediction, preview
Atlanta won its first game of the season and has basically kept rolling from there, losing multiple consecutive games on just one occasion. Despite the fact that Ronald Acuña Jr. and Drake Baldwin have both missed time with injuries, the Braves have had the third-best offense in baseball, as Michael Harris II has been extremely hot at the plate in his last 12 games and Matt Olson has continued his Hall of Fame-level production. Atlanta has been even better defensively, as its pitching staff has the league’s second-best ERA. Sale and breakout star Bryce Elder have proven to be one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball, and the Braves’ bullpen is the only unit in the majors with a sub-3 ERA, with closer Raisel Iglesias and setup men Dylan Lee and Robert Suarez all posting sub-2 ERA’s. Atlanta should continue to thrive, and it could get even better once Spencer Schwellenbach eventually returns.
Meanwhile, it’s been no Munetaka Murakami, no problem for the White Sox. Murakami had taken baseball by storm by bashing 20 home runs in his first 57 games, but Chicago has gone a solid 5-4 since he went down with a hamstring strain thanks to spectacular contributions from Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Tristan Peters, and rookie Braden Montgomery, the latter of whom hit a walkoff homer last night in his first career game. All in all, the White Sox have had the league’s fourth-best offense this season, including the fifth-best mark in the last seven days despite not having Murakami in that span. Their pitching staff leaves something to be desired, as they rank just 17th in rotation ERA and 20th in bullpen ERA, but veterans Seranthony Domínguez and Sean Newcomb and youngsters Grant Taylor and Bryan Hudson have emerged as reliable arms. Shane Smith, an All-Star last season, is bound to return eventually. Chicago’s future arguably looks brighter than it has at any other point in the 21st Century.
I’m not sure if any pitcher can keep the White Sox’s bats in check, but Sale should come as close as any. The future Hall of Famer and former Chicago ace finally won a Cy Young Award in 2024, and despite his advanced age (37), he’s had yet another spectacular season. Sale isn’t coming off of a great outing, giving up 10 hits and three earned runs in 5.2 innings against the Toronto Blue Jays, but it was just the second time all season that he’s given up more than two runs. His Statcast profile is tremendous, as he ranks above the median in all 13 major Statcast categories, and his 81st-percentile whiff rate should allow him to rack up strikeouts against a White Sox team that finds air at the league’s highest rate (though that’s thanks in no small part to the absent Murakami). Sale’s biggest relative weakness is his tendency to allow fly balls, but Chicago hits grounders at the league’s seventh-highest rate, an issue that could be exacerbated further without Murakami, whose ground ball rate is below the team’s average. The splits are slightly against him; while he’s been consistently elite whether at home or on the road, the White Sox have been better at Rate Field.
Martin is no slouch, either. He’s been one of baseball’s biggest breakout stars this season, leading Chicago in WAR, and though he’s coming off of a rough start (4.2 innings, 10 hits, and six earned runs), he’d previously had an eight-start stretch in which he gave up one or fewer earned runs in each outing. Overall, advanced numbers are fairly kind to Martin; he ranks in the 62nd percentile in expected ERA, and his 2.45 FIP is good for third in the American League. He’s been excellent at incentivizing chases, which could be a particularly powerful asset against a team with an aggressive plate approach, and he doesn’t walk many batters, which could exacerbate one of the Braves’ biggest weaknesses. It’s just as well that he’s facing Atlanta without Baldwin and Acuña, given that he ranks in the bottom quartile in both average exit velocity and barrel rate and Baldwin and Acuña have been two of the league’s best in that regard. Despite the fact that the splits aren’t in his favor — he’s been better on the road, and the Braves have had the league’s second-best road offense — I’d still back him to produce five or six solid innings.
Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 7 (-120)
This is a proper old-fashioned pitcher’s duel between two of baseball’s best pitchers, but seven runs is an awfully low bar for a game between two top-five offenses. Both pitchers are on the wrong side of the home-road splits, and the White Sox’s bullpen doesn’t have enough depth after both Domínguez and Taylor took the mound in last night’s extra innings affair.
Strong Lean: Chris Sale 8+ Strikeouts (-106)
Sale has had eight strikeouts in three of his past four starts and five of his last seven. He also has the second-highest career average for strikeouts per nine innings (behind only Blake Snell), and while Chicago’s tendency to strike out is partially due to Murakami, he’s been far from the only reason.
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