There’s plenty of action across the Wednesday MLB schedule, and while a matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins may not sound like the most thrilling game, it should be a fun one in South Beach. Both of these clubs are plenty competitive and the series got off to a hot start with a 10-6 win for the Fish yesterday evening. Tonight, they run it back again for the second set.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Diamondbacks vs. Marlins matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins prediction, preview
Arizona Diamondbacks
Competing in the NL West is tough, but the Diamondbacks are holding their own at 34-32 even despite sitting 8.5 games back of the back-to-back champs for first. However, there are some less-than-encouraging marks to note for the club at the moment, such as a -14 run differential on the year and a 3-7 record over their last 10 games. There’s a distinct need to break out of this recent funk, especially with the bats ranked dead last in OPS at .601 over the last two weeks. At some point, they’re bound to break back out and resemble the offense we’ve seen throughout the year. Arizona averages 4.38 runs per game and has a .699 OPS on a .241/.308/.392 slash line. An ISO of .150 is respectable, though the Diamondbacks have only 60 homers on the season. The bad news is that they get a date against a right-hander tonight, with the lesser of their splits coming against RHP at a .229/.300/.372 slash line for a .672 OPS.
As for the pitcher, the D-Backs start RHP Ryne Nelson this evening. The 28-year-old is 2-4 in 13 starts this year with a 4.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 55 Ks across 72.1 IP. He’s bringing good fastball velocity with an above-average chase rate and a 6.9% BB%, but the strikeouts haven’t followed and he has a 15th-percentile barrel rate with an average exit velo of 90.3 mph. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks 18th in ERA at 4.29 with a 1.25 WHIP and 11.9% K-BB%.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins, on the other hand, are beginning to heat back up following a slump of their own. They’re 6-4 over their last 10 games and winners of three straight, though the overall record remains 32-35 with a -16 run differential on the year. That record is good for just fourth in the NL East. They’re producing only 4.27 runs per game, though that sees a slight uptick to 4.43 at home for tonight, garnering a .703 OPS on the year. The full slash line reads .245/.322/.381 with a paltry ISO of .136, and that’s all despite a BABIP of .299 that ranks seventh in the MLB. The results should probably be better, but hey, that’s baseball. Miami’s splits against righties like they face tonight are .247/.322/.378 as well, with 39 of the 55 homers coming in the split. Over the last two weeks, the Marlins’ OPS of .744 ranks 14th in the sport as well.
It’s RHP Ryan Gusto starting tonight for Miami. He’s appeared in just three games with one start this season, tossing just 5.0 innings with six earned runs allowed on eight hits and one walk with five strikeouts. In a full season last year, he recorded a 5.67 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with 97 punchouts in 101.2 IP. The bullpen backing him ranks 11th in ERA this season at 3.66 with a 1.24 WHIP and 12.0% K-BB%.
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Diamondbacks as -115 favorites on the Moneyline tonight, though the Marlins are close behind at -105 odds. The total sits at 8.5 combined runs between these two clubs.
Best Bet: MIA Marlins ML (+141)
The skid may continue for the Diamondbacks for a couple of reasons tonight. For starters, they’re much worse at the plate against right-handers than against southpaws. Even with Gusto looking rough in a very limited sample this season and coming off a poor 2025, just the splits alone are enough to feel bearish about Arizona on the road here. Beyond that, the Snakes’ recent form is extremely rough, while the Marlins have seen much more success at the plate lately and are better at home than on the road. The logic may be overly simple, but assuming Gusto doesn’t collapse and the offense provides some support here against Nelson and an inferior bullpen, Miami should come out on top with its fourth straight victory.
