No team in NBA history has ever come back after losing each of the first two games of a series at home, so though the series technically isn’t over yet, the San Antonio Spurs would need a miracle at this point to come back and beat the New York Knicks.
Game 3 will begin at 8:30 p.m. ET tonight at Madison Square Garden, and with a $10,000 get-in price and the President of the United States in attendance, it’ll be the most expensive and one of the most hyped-up contests in league history.
The Knicks are 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-130 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 216.5. San Antonio is +110 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s much-anticipated battle.
Spurs at Knicks Game 3 Best Prop Bets
- Karl-Anthony Towns 35+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (-106): Towns is coming off of a 21-point, 13-board, four-assist effort in Game 2, and his usage rate should remain high since his shooting forces Victor Wembanyama to guard the perimeter. He’s also recorded more rebound chances this series.
- Victor Wembanyama 2+ Steals (+182): Wembanyama has recorded two or more steals in four of his last six games, and given Karl-Anthony Towns’ critical offensive role, he should be right in the middle of the action at all times to either intercept bad passes or poke it away from Towns on a drive.
- Dylan Harper 15+ Points (+108): Harper scored 15 points in each of Games 1 and 2, and given that he had a team-best plus-12 in Game 2, it’s likely that his minutes will remain high. Compared to De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, or Wembanyama, he has a comparatively easy defensive matchup (Mikal Bridges).
Karl-Anthony Towns 35+ Points + Rebounds + Assists (-106)
As expected, this series has been defined by a two-way big man selected with the first overall pick who has guard-like skills who played for the World team in the All-Star game. Unfortunately for Spurs fans, the best player in this series has been Towns, not Victor Wembanyama. New York’s linchpin has averaged 16.3 points, 10.8 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 2.3 combined steals/blocks per game on 57-48-87 shooting splits across the Knicks’ 13-game winning streak, and he had 21 points, 13 rebounds, and four assists in Game 2. He’ll continue to play a critical role because of his ability to drag Wembanyama out to the perimeter.
Of course, it won’t come easy. San Antonio has an excellent defense, ranking in the top three in defensive rating during both the regular season and the playoffs, and Game 2 was the only game against the Spurs this season in which Towns reached that threshold. Still, not even Wembanyama has been able to contain him, as he’s shot seven-for-12 so far this series when guarded by the unanimous Defensive Player of the Year. Additionally, Wembanyama spent plenty of time, especially in Game 2, chasing Jalen Brunson around the perimeter, which has allowed Towns to record more rebound chances (and, critically, more uncontested rebound chances) per game than Wembanyama.
Victor Wembanyama 2+ Steals (+182)
I hesitate slightly to back Wembanyama at all, given how poor he’s been (by his lofty standards) on both sides of the ball this series. In Game 1, I backed him to record four blocks and he recorded three; in Game 2, I backed him to total 40+ points/rebounds and he finished with 38. But given the time that he spent guarding the perimeter, especially down the stretch in Game 2, his steals prop could represent good value. He’s recorded at least two steals in four of his last six games despite predominantly guarding post players in the Western Conference Finals, and he had at least two 15 different times during the regular season.
Ball movement has been a hallmark of New York’s offense this season, as during the playoffs, it has attempted the fifth-most passes per game. That should play into Wembanyama’s hands, given that a slight majority of his steals across the last nine games have come via bad passes. That could especially be the case if he stays on Towns, who receives 13 more passes per game than his assignment during the Western Conference Finals, Isaiah Hartenstein. Wembanyama also forced multiple lost-ball turnovers against Hartenstein, and Towns handles the ball significantly more frequently.
Dylan Harper 15+ Points (+108)
I bet this in each of the first two games and it hit in both instances, so why change up something that’s working, especially since he also got there in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals? He set a new career-high in minutes (excluding starts) in Game 2, playing four more minutes than Stephon Castle (who sat out most of the fourth quarter after injuring his ankle) and just two fewer than De’Aaron Fox. He was a team-best plus-12 in those minutes, continuing a playoff run in which he’s had the team’s second-highest on-court net rating and the second-most fruitful partnership with Wembanyama among players to share the court with him for at least 300 minutes. Whether his Game 3 minutes come at the expense of Fox, Castle, or someone else, playing him is imperative.
Simply, Harper is too shifty and strong for the Knicks to have too much success against him. Just as they did in Game 1, they guarded him predominantly with Mikal Bridges, and while he’s a former Defensive Player of the Year finalist who posted an 80th-percentile stop percentage during the regular season, that figure has dropped to the 26th percentile so far these playoffs. Miles McBride, his second-most frequent assignment, has been scantly better. So far this series, New York has done an excellent job forcing shots between five and nine feet away, and Harper has been pretty efficient both near the rim and from floater range.
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