The Knicks are hosting the Spurs for Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Monday. New York leads this series 2-0. On DraftKings Sportsbook, New York is favored by 2.5 points and this contest carries a total of 215.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick for this matchup.
Knicks vs. Spurs preview
After the Knicks took Game 1, 105-95, most expected the Spurs to bounce back in Game 2 and even this series on their home floor. San Antonio is a league-best 21-7 after a loss this season and the team closed as a 6.5-point favorite for Game 2. However, things didn’t go according to plan and the Knicks won Game 2 in a nail biter, 105-104, to take a commanding 2-0 series lead heading back to New York. This impressively marked New York’s 13th straight victory.
The Knicks being the more experienced group was evident as the Spurs’ late game issues were also on full display. With the game tied with about 13 seconds remaining, Victor Wembanyama grabbed the rebound off a Jalen Brunson missed jumper, but Wembanyama inexcusably turned the ball over on a bad pass to Stephon Castle. The pass went off the wing’s back as he was running up court, which led to Brunson recovering the ball.
The guard then was quickly fouled and went 1-of-2 from the line to take the 105-104 lead. Then, with eight seconds remaining, San Antonio went to Wembanyama to win the game on the final possession, but he missed a fadeaway from 20 feet out.
The Spurs not being able to close this game out on their home floor was devastating and following this, they are now just 2-6 in clutch games this postseason while the Knicks are 4-2. A clutch game is when the score is within five points with five minutes or less remaining. After shooting a brutal 36% from the field in Game 1, San Antonio greatly improved in Game 2 with a 47.4% field goal percentage. While the Spurs shot it better, they were worse at protecting the ball against the Knicks’ stringy defense that leads these playoffs in rating. San Antonio finished with 16 turnovers in Game 2 after finishing with 13 in Game 1.
The Knicks’ defense forcing the Spurs to turn the ball over heavily has been one of the main differences in this series and San Antonio must improve in this department if the club wants any chance of coming back in this series. The Spurs did a better job at containing Brunson, holding him to 20 points on 7-of-25 shooting, but the guard still scored seven points in the fourth quarter and four of the five starters for the Knicks finished with 17 points. Additionally, Landry Shamet added 13 points off the bench, including 3-of-7 from deep.
While Wembanyama struggled in the final minutes of the game, the big man still finished with a game-high 29 points on 11-of-21 shooting. Also, De’Aaron Fox had his best game since returning from the ankle injury in the Western Conference Finals, scoring 20 points on 8-of-12 shooting, and Castle, Devin Vassell and Dylan Harper all added at least 14 points.
Fox putting up 20 points was encouraging, as the Spurs need a player outside of Wembanyama to big factor as a scorer. The problem is, with this series shifting to New York, its going to be difficult for Fox or Castle to shine as scorers, as the Knicks have been sensational on their home floor. At Madison Square Garden, they are 6-1 this postseason and 36-11 this season overall.
In general, the Knicks are in the midst of one of the best postseason runs off all time. New York is 14-2 and the club ranks first in net rating at 18.1 during these playoffs. Meanwhile, San Antonio is 12-8 and ranks second in net rating, but at a much lower 9.3. The Spurs are a great team and deserve to be in these NBA Finals, but them going into the hostile Madison Square Garden and winning Game 3 is going to be very challenging.
Knicks vs. Spurs pick, best bet
As discussed above, the Spurs are the best team when coming off a loss this season with a 21-7 record. Plus, they haven’t lost three games in a row this season. All that being said, the Knicks have been the best team during these playoffs and it’s not particularly close.
New York is also back home now, where the club has been awesome all season long. The Knicks’ incredible run should continue with their 13th straight win and they should cover this small 2.5-point spread. This season, New York is a league-best 32-15 ATS at home.
