Don’t look now, but the Pirates (34-29) are vying for their first postseason appearance in over a decade. We’re only two months into the 2026 MLB season, but Pittsburgh already looks the part of a fringe playoff contender. Friday’s contest with the NL East-leading Braves (42-21) serves as a massive litmus test. Can the visitors earn an upset win tonight against an Atlanta juggernaut?
The Braves are favorites (-144) over the Pirates, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Pittsburgh and Atlanta on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Braves pick, best bet
- Pirates vs. Braves over 8.5 runs (-102): Keller has been hit hard as of late, while Perez has gotten by in spite of mediocre advanced metrics. Neither is particularly good at racking up strikeouts, instead relying on soft contact. Both of these lineups rank within the top four teams in runs scored.
Pirates vs. Braves prediction, preview
What a season it’s been for the Buccos. Fans would be forgiven for expressing some skepticism; after all, we’ve seen hot starts fizzle out for Pittsburgh before. Still, this year’s group feels different. For starters, the front office made some big moves during the offseason. Sluggers Brandon Lowe (140 wRC+) and Ryan O’Hearn (138 wRC+) have played key roles on a suddenly dangerous lineup. As a unit, the Pirates rank fourth in baseball with 5.16 runs per game. The player that’s impressed the most at the plate so far has been Oneil Cruz. Through 61 games, the centerfielder is slashing .269/.349/.482 with 14 homers and 20 stolen bases.
Tonight, Pittsburgh will face off against 15th-year pro Martin Perez. The hurler is enjoying yet another productive season, bringing stability to the back end of Atlanta’s rotation. Over 51.2 innings of work, the southpaw has notched a 2.79 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 42 strikeouts (7.3 K/9). With that being said, the veteran only ranks within the top 50th percentile in ground ball rate (45.5%). His 4.34 xERA, .256 xBA and 21.4% whiff rate all suggest negative regression going forward. Lowe (.333 BA) and Marcell Ozuna (.571 BA) have both had prior success against Perez. The Pirates have scored an MLB-best 69 runs over their previous ten contests.
As for the visitors, it’ll be Mitch Keller taking the hill this evening. It’s been another ho-hum season from the 30-year-old. That’s not necessarily a bad thing; he’s one of the more consistent mid-rotation arms in baseball. Through 68.1 frames, the righty has recorded a 4.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 51 strikeouts (6.7 K/9). Granted, the past few weeks haven’t been kind to Keller. He’s coughed up 18 earned runs over his last four outings (7.59 ERA).
The Braves haven’t been at their best during the past week. They’ve scored 12 runs over their last five games, 12th-lowest in the league. Still, sleep on this offense at your own peril. Atlanta ranks third in runs scored (329), second in home runs (88) and third in OPS (.757) this season. That level of power will be tested against Keller, a pitcher that tends to avoid fly balls (0.5 HR/9). With that being said, he owns a ghastly 7.31 ERA over seven career meetings with the Braves. That mark, combined with recent struggles, casts a dark cloud over Pittsburgh’s starter tonight.
Best Bet: Pirates vs. Braves over 8.5 runs (-102)
In many ways, Keller and Perez are similar pitchers. Neither gets a ton of strikeouts, instead getting by on command and soft contact. The former has been getting shelled lately, most recently by a mediocre Rockies club. As for the latter, advanced metrics seem to suggest he’s due for a bad start. Pittsburgh’s red-hot offense has shown they aren’t a fluke either. Expect both lineups to do some damage at Truist Park this evening.
