The Yankees (37-25) were dealt a major blow on Thursday. Aaron Judge is set to miss at least the next month due to a rib injury. Still, in the wide open American League, New York has enough talent to remain firmly in playoff contention. The same can’t be said for the Red Sox (26-35), currently last place in the AL East. If Boston wants any shot at a competitive second half, the time to start picking up wins is now. Which of these two mortal enemies has the edge on Friday?
The Yankees are favorites (-149) over the Red Sox, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Boston and New York on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Yankees pick, best bet
- Red Sox vs. Yankees under 8.5 runs (-130): Sonny Gray doesn’t give up many homers, New York’s preferred method on offense. In addition, Aaron Judge’s absence leaves this Yankees lineup weaker than ever. On the other side, hard-throwing Ryan Weathers should find success against the light-hitting Red Sox.
Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction, preview
It’ll be Sonny Gray taking the mound against his old club tonight. The former Yankees hurler has done well during his debut season in Beantown. Through ten outings, he’s accounted for a 3.06 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 41 strikeouts (7.4 K/9). The three-time All-Star has allowed one earned run or less in four of his previous five outings. Gray isn’t a fireballer by any means, topping out at around 92 MPH on his fastball. He makes up for it in other ways, ranking within the top 70th percentile in walk rate (6.8%), hard-hit rate (33.8%) and ground ball rate (48.0%).
Without Judge, this Yankees offense isn’t nearly as dangerous. Still, there’s several other big bats in the lineup capable of picking up the slack. After all, New York is averaging an American League-best 5.45 runs per game at home. Leading the charge this season is Ben Rice, already in the conversation for best first baseman in baseball. Over 57 games, the 27-year-old is slashing .300/.393/.638 with 17 homers and 44 RBIs. He’s been accompanied by Cody Bellinger, resigned this offseason. The outfielder, in addition to playing great defense, has notched a .379 xwOBA, .466 xSLG and 14.4% walk rate. Despite a middling .241 team batting average, the Pinstripes lead the majors with 89 home runs.
Even if Gray is on point tonight, there’s no guarantee the Red Sox win this one. Their lineup is currently averaging 3.98 runs per game, sixth-fewest in baseball. That’s without factoring in the absence of big bats Roman Anthony (finger) and Trevor Story (groin). Just three Boston regulars have notched a wRC+ above 100: Willson Contreras, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu. In many ways, this group is the exact opposite of the Yankees. They’ve hit an American League-worst 46 home runs this season.
On the other side, it’ll be Ryan Weathers taking the mound. Acquired from the Marlins this offseason, it’s been a terrific debut for the righty. Through 64.0 innings of work, he’s delivered a 3.52 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 75 strikeouts (10.5 K/9). The left-hander has hit a bit of a rough patch recently, allowing five earned runs in two of his last three outings. However, there’s not much reason for concern here. Weathers is one of baseball’s best strikeout artists, ranking within the top 89th percentile in K rate (29.0%). However, he also possesses above-average command (2.7 BB/9). He does have a tendency to allow home runs, a weakness the Red Sox aren’t equipped to exploit.
Best Bet: Red Sox vs. Yankees under 8.5 runs (-130)
If nothing else, Gray has done a stellar job at keeping the ball on the ground. Look no further than his 0.7 HR/9 ratio this season. For a Yankees offense (missing Judge) that relies heavily on the long ball, that’s not ideal. On the other side, the Red Sox haven’t shown an ability to hit most hurlers this season. Weathers should have little trouble avoiding hard contact against a light-hitting Boston lineup tonight. Expect another intense pitching duel between these two rivals on Friday.
