Struggling National League squads are set to meet on Friday at Petco Park. The Mets (27-35) have been mired in mediocrity all season, currently last in the NL East. As for the Padres (32-29), a year that started with promise is beginning to unravel. San Diego has lost nine of its last ten matchups. Can the Friars get back on track tonight at home?
The Padres are favorites (-132) over the Mets, with the over/under set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between New York and San Diego on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Mets pick, best bet
- Padres ML (-132): Both of these teams sit near the bottom in most offensive categories. However, San Diego comes into this one with a clear starting pitcher advantage. Expect King to dominate against a depleted Mets lineup.
Padres vs. Mets prediction, preview
Taking the mound this evening will be San Diego’s ace, Michael King. Although he isn’t quite a household name, the right-hander is one of the National League’s better arms. This season, he’s put up a 3.18 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 65 strikeouts (8.6 K/9) over 12 starts. With that being said, King has hit a bit of a rough patch recently. During his previous two outings, he’s surrendered nine combined runs. Regardless, those appearances came against above-average Athletics and Nationals lineups. A date at home with the light-hitting Mets looks more promising on paper.
New York is averaging just 4.05 runs per game, eighth-lowest in baseball this season. That number plummets all the way down to a National League-worst 3.63 on the road. The Mets rank within the league’s bottom five clubs in batting average (.228), on-base percentage (.293), slugging (.359) and xWOBAcon (.334). King has several pitches at his disposal, including a nasty changeup (27%) and sweeper (20%). Against those two offerings, New York batters own a lackluster .222/.266/.314 slash line.
Toeing the slab for the visitors in this one will be Christian Scott. All things considered, it’s been a successful return to the majors for the 26-year-old. Taking the mound for the first time since 2024, the righty has posted a 2.97 ERA over seven starts. However, he’s also on the hook for a 1.39 WHIP. Scott isn’t afraid to let it rip, sitting within the top 86th percentile in strikeout rate (28.1%). Still, that number doesn’t tell the whole story. The youngster hasn’t done a great job of getting batters to chase his pitches out of the zone. Unsurprisingly, he’s handing out 4.7 walks per nine innings this season.
Hitting has been a major issue this season for the Padres. They’re currently last in the league with 3.85 runs per game. That’s not what anyone was expecting prior to this season given the star power on this roster. Big names such as Manny Machado (76 wRC+), Jackson Merrill (77 wRC+) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (94 wRC+) haven’t lived up to expectations so far. Making Scott work early and getting to New York’s bullpen could be the difference tonight.
Best Bet: Padres ML (-132)
It’s hard to generate much enthusiasm for San Diego at the moment. Still, it’s not as if the Mets have gien their fans much to cheer about. The Padres come into Friday with the superior starter at home. Even if the lineup doesn’t do much, it’s difficult to envision New York doing damage against King. On the flip side, Scott is relatively unproven and prone to putting runners on. At -132 against one of the National League’s worst clubs, back the Friars.
