Looking for the best MLB prop bets today? We’ve got a few strong spots to target on the June 5 slate, with a mix of favorable offensive matchups and pitchers in advantageous situations. The Nationals are in a great position against Merrill Kelly’s home struggles, Vinnie Pasquantino draws a favorable matchup against Zebby Matthews, and Parker Messick gets one of the best pitching matchups on the board against a Rangers lineup that continues to struggle against left-handed pitching. Let’s break down the best MLB prop bets on the board.
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Best MLB Prop Bets Today (June 5, 2026)
- Best Team Total: Nationals team total over 4.5 runs: Merrill Kelly’s home struggles and issues against lefties make this a strong spot for Washington.
- Best Batter Prop: Vinnie Pasquantino 2+ Total Bases: Pasquantino profiles well against Zebby Matthews and his heavy fastball usage.
- Best Pitcher Prop: Parker Messick over 17.5 outs recorded: The Rangers continue to be one of the weakest offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching.
MLB Prop Bets Breakdown (June 5, 2026)
Let’s break down the top MLB prop bets and picks for today. Click on each headline below to view the latest odds and bet these plays on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Washington Nationals team total over 4.5 runs (+105) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
It may look like Merrill Kelly is pitching better lately, but the underlying numbers and his advanced stats tell a different story. Kelly’s 5.06 ERA comes with an xERA of 7.29 and a 5.60 FIP. Despite allowing only seven runs over his last three starts, his combined xERA for that span was 6.89. Tonight, he’ll be pitching at home, which is where he’s been his worst. Kelly has thrown 17.1 innings at home and owns a 6.23 ERA with a .385 wOBA and a 5.41 FIP. The Nationals have a very strong offense against righties, and tonight’s expected lineup has a .335 wOBA and a .200 ISO against them. For individual player props, I’d focus on lefties like James Wood and CJ Abrams. Lefties have tagged Kelly for a .394 wOBA, and seven of the 10 home runs he’s allowed.
Vinnie Pasquantino 2+ Total Bases (+127) vs. Minnesota Twins
I like this spot for Pasquantino tonight against Zebby Matthews and the Twins. Matthews has had a fairly light schedule in his four starts, facing the Marlins, Astros, White Sox, and Pirates. Through those starts, he has a 4.63 ERA with an xERA of 3.01 and a 4.60 FIP. It’s a small sample, and he’s been a bit unlucky, but the larger sample shows this is a solid matchup for Pasquantino. Dating back to 2024, Matthews has a .384 wOBA with a 5.58 FIP and has allowed 20 of the 28 home runs to lefties. He’s a heavy four-seam fastball thrower, and against that pitch, Pasquantino has a .341 wOBA with a .167 ISO this season.
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Parker Messick over 17.5 outs recorded (-108) vs. Texas Rangers
Messick is in a great matchup tonight against the Texas Rangers. They’ve been one of the worst offenses in the league against left-handed pitching and now face Messick, who is having a fantastic season. On the year, the Rangers are slashing .214/.297/.339 with an 83 wRC+, a .295 wOBA, and a 22% K% when facing lefties. Messick has been every bit as good as advertised with his 2.21 ERA, a 3.25 xERA, and a 3.05 FIP. He’s gone at least six innings in six of his 12 starts but has yet to face the Rangers this season. With how poorly they are at the dish in these matchups, I think Messick will record at least 18 outs tonight.
More MLB Betting Content & Picks
Check out more MLB betting content and player props throughout the season on DraftKings Network.
- MLB Best Bets: Top home run props for Friday 6/5/26
- MLB Best Bets: Top player prop bets for Friday 6/05/26
- MLB Best Bets Today: Top NRFI props for Friday 6/5/26
Good luck with your MLB prop bets today!
