Friday’s MLB schedule includes all 30 teams on the board, with a Wrigley matinee followed by 14 games under the lights. Coors Field is back on the board, and there are a few great matchups to attack. My top home run props to target this Friday are Jackson Chourio, Alec Burleson and Daylen Lile.
As always, I’m here with my three favorite picks from today’s slate of games to swat one out.
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio | Milwaukee Brewers | Chourio has three HR in his last five starts. He’ll get great weather in Denver vs. Ryan Feltner. RHB vs. Feltner have a .286 ISO and .428 wOBA with a 14.6% barrel rate. |
| Alec Burleson | St. Louis Cardinals | Burleson gets a great matchup against Brady Singer in St. Louis. Singer has served up 16 HR in 11 games with a 46.2% hard-hit rate and 13.2% barrel rate vs. LHB this season. |
| Daylen Lile | Nationals | Lile is a great sleeper value with good upside against Merrill Kelly, who has struggled to keep the ball in the yard against lefties at home. LHB have a 51.9% hard-hit rate, 21.2% barrel rate, and a .299 ISO vs. Kelly. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Friday.
Top MLB home run props today: analysis
Jackson Chourio to hit a home run (+292)
Chourio had a pair of homers on Thursday as he warmed up for his visit to Coors Field. The weather in Denver is also warming up and is forecast to be over 80 degrees at game time with the wind blowing out. After his late start to the season, he has only four homers, but he definitely seems to be finding his form.
Chourio is a sizzling 10-for-21 (.476) over his last six games with two doubles, three homers, a .645 wOBA, .524 ISO, and an impressive 50% barrel rate.
His outstanding, very short-term form has a good chance to carry over against Rockies’ starter Ryan Feltner, who has allowed five homers in his six starts this year. Three of those homers have come at Coors, and three have been hit by right-handed hitters. Even though Feltner is a righty, right-handed hitters have hit him much more effectively this season, posting a .321 batting average, .428 ISO, 50% hard-hit rate, and 14.6% barrel rate. Feltner’s reverse splits and Chourio’s sizzling last few games make his home run props a great place to attack Friday night.
Alec Burleson to hit a home run (+471)
Burleson and the Cardinals are at home taking on Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer. After a solid first season in Cincinnati, Singer has been knocked around this year, going 2-5 with a 6.18 ERA and 6.89 FIP in his 11 starts. He has coughed up 16 homers in his 51 innings, the third most of any pitcher in the Majors. Lefties like Burleson are hitting .363 with a .274 ISO, a .450 wOBA, and 10 of the 16 homers he has allowed this year. Left-handed hitters have a 46.2% hard-hit rate and 13.2% barrel rate against Singer.
Burleson brings good value at almost 5:1 in this matchup and is 3-for-7 with two doubles and a homer in his past meetings with Singer. On the season, the 27-year-old lefty has hit six of his seven homers off right-handed pitchers, and four of those seven homers at home. He has hit safely in five straight games, going 8-for-20 (.400) with a 52.9% hard-hit rate, but he hasn’t homered in his last 13 games, which is what is driving his value so high this Friday in a favorable spot.
Daylen Lile to hit a home run (+890)
While James Wood (+286) and CJ Abrams (+552) are also great plays, I’m looking to close out the night with a long-shot hit from Daylen Lile. Lile hit nine homers with a .360 wOBA in his 91 games as a rookie last year, and this year, he’s hitting 250 with seven homers. He comes in on a home run drought of 18 games, but he has had a few smashes lately. He has three hard-hit batted balls in his last two games, including a 107.5 mph single on Tuesday and two connections of over 99 mph on Wednesday that both resulted in outs.
Since he’s hitting the ball better, he has a good chance to take advantage of a good matchup against Merrill Kelly. The veteran righty has given up 10 homers in his nine starts, including four long balls in his 17 1/3 innings at Chase Field. Lefties like Lile have hit seven of those 10 homers while compiling a 51.9% hard-hit rate, 21.2% barrel rate, and a .299 ISO.
It’s a long-shot play, but if Lile continues to crush it, he could get back in the home run column on Friday night.
