There is an all-Italian semi-final at Roland-Garros on Friday. World No. 14 Flavio Cobolli is taking on World No. 104 Matteo Arnaldi with a spot in the French Open final on the line.
Here is my pick, prediction and best bet on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s semi-final match between Matteo Arnaldi and Flavio Cobolli.
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli Preview
Matteo Arnaldi Preview
It has been an improbable run to a major semi-final for Matteo Arnaldi. He is not even a top-100 player in the world and had never made it past the fourth round at a major until this run. Arnaldi has never even made an ATP Tour final before in his career. Even as recently as the past few weeks, he has not performed well at big tournaments. He lost in the first round at the Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami Open, and Monte-Carlo Masters. He did not even make it out of the qualifiers in Madrid or Barcelona. Arnaldi did drop a level and play in a Challenger Tour event, which he won. He was able to ride that momentum into the Italian Open, where he pulled off a win over Alex de Minaur and made the Round of 32.
That was enough to give Matteo Arnaldi some confidence coming into this major. He has now pulled off five straight upsets, including an incredible comeback against Frances Tiafoe. He will need to pull off one more upset over his compatriot, Flavio Cobolli, the highest-ranked player he has faced so far in this tournament.
Flavio Cobolli Preview
This tournament has been highlighted by its young talent. Rafael Jodar and Joao Fonseca were stealing the headlines for their incredible upsets early in the tournament. While Flavio Cobolli is not as young as those teenage sensations, it is the 24-year-old Italian that is on the brink of making the French Open final. This has been a breakout tournament for Cobolli, as it has been for so many others. His previous best finish at a major was making the Wimbledon quarter-finals last year. Cobolli has also shown his quality on clay this year. He upset three top-10 players during this clay season, including fellow semi-finalist Alexander Zverev. Cobolli’s run seems much less like a fluke, and more like someone who is here to stay.
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli Best Bet
My best bet is for Flavio Cobolli to cover the spread of -1.5 sets. This has been an amazing run by Matteo Arnaldi, but this will be by far his toughest test so far. He got to face Raphael Collignon in the hangover spot after his big upset over Ben Shelton. Frances Tiafoe should have taken care of Arnaldi in four sets, but he had an epic collapse. He was then the beneficiary of an injured Matteo Berrettini in the quarter-finals. Arnaldi now needs to face a young, fit and talented opponent with a spot in the Roland-Garros final on the line. Flavio Cobolli should handle business in three or four sets and move on to the first major final of his career.
