The long grind of the NBA regular season and playoffs is just about over, with the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs the last two remaining teams. Each side will be prepared to bring their best effort to be crowned champions with the NBA Finals tipping off tonight. New York will be looking to earn its first championship since 1973, while San Antonio has continued to prove it is ahead of its young timeline.
Looking at the odds for the NBA Finals series opener, the Spurs enter as 4.5-point favorites and hold -185 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Knicks hold +154 odds of pulling off the series-opening upset, with the game total set at 218.5 points.
You can check out a full preview and prediction for the matchup on DraftKings Network. But for now, let’s dive into the top player prop bets for Game 1.
Knicks at Spurs Best Prop Bets
Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 Rebounds (-129)
Few players have catapulted themselves into the big picture legacy conversations the way Victor Wembanyama has in his young career. The 22-year-old would join Magic Johnson and Kawhi Leonard as the youngest Finals MVP in NBA history if things go this way. But there is plenty of work to get to that point, and expect Wembanyama to assert himself on the boards in the early parts of this series. Boasting a 7-foot-4 frame and an 8-foot wingspan, there is no matching his skill set. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year averaged 11.5 rebounds per game across the regular season and is pulling in 10.8 rebounds per game in the postseason.
New York’s rebounding output is headlined by Karl-Anthony Towns, who averaged 11.8 rebounds per game in the regular season and is pulling in 10.6 boards per game in the postseason. However, Towns has a bad habit of ending up in foul trouble largely by his own doing. Wemby’s frame and skill set will only make this concern grow, and the Spurs star has done an excellent job putting opponents in foul trouble across this postseason run. In addition, Mitchell Robinson is next up in terms of rebounding production, after pulling in 8.8 rebounds per game across the regular season. Robinson is the best matchup for Wembanyama when it comes to frame and size, but he has seen his role and production slip in the postseason. He is also battling a broken finger issue that occurred while the Knicks were waiting for their NBA Finals opponent.
The path to Wembanyama pulling in plenty of rebounds does not carry much resistance, and expect the Spurs star to assert himself tonight. The two-time All-Star set the tone in the previous series, pulling in 24 rebounds in the series opener against the Thunder. He also pulled in over 11.5 rebounds in eight of the 17 postseason games thus far, as well as in 32 of his 64 regular-season games. Count on Wembanyama to make a clear effort to set the tone for this series and assert himself on the boards by pulling in over 11.5 rebounds tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+124)
While foul trouble is a concern that will linger across this series, Karl-Anthony Towns’ offensive skill set is necessary to the Knicks’ outlook. New York pushed its chips in by trading for the six-time All-Star and has made its deepest postseason run since 1999. Towns posted averages of 20.1 points, 11.9 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game across the regular season, and he is averaging 16.9 points, 10.6 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game in the postseason.
For the wider scale of his career, the biggest unique factor in Towns’ skill set was his perimeter shooting at his size. The self-proclaimed “best big man shooter of all time” is a career 39.7% three-point shooter on 4.3 attempts per game. This season, he shot just 36.8% from deep on 4.1 perimeter shots per game. However, in the playoffs, Towns is connecting on 48.9% of his three-point shots. He is averaging 1.6 made three-pointers per game and has made over 1.5 long-range shots in three of his last five games and in six games overall.
Expect New York to make it a clear priority to spread the floor and force Victor Wembanyama’s shot-blocking presence out to the perimeter. Towns will be a key part of this effort and is capable of getting red-hot from deep. With this being the series opener, expect this to especially be a priority and for the Knicks to make an effort to create plenty of long-range chances. Back Towns to pull his weight and knock down a pair of perimeter shots tonight.
Jalen Brunson to Record Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+123)
Another Knicks star who should be expected to attack from the perimeter is Jalen Brunson. While the supporting class is extremely strong, the Knicks still fully revolve around their star point guard. San Antonio is coming off a series in which it did an excellent job of slowing down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. There are some stylistic similarities in Gilgeous-Alexander and Brunson’s styles of play. However, Brunson is much more active from beyond the three-point arc. He attempted 7.1 three-pointers per game this season compared to Gilgeous-Alexander’s 4.4 perimeter shots.
With Wembanyama’s shot-blocking presence in mind, expect it to especially be a priority for Brunson to attack from the three-point line. Across the postseason, the Knicks star is shooting 35.2% from deep on 6.2 perimeter shots per game. He has made over 2.5 three-pointers in seven of the 14 postseason games.
Expect plenty of physicality from the Spurs’ defense on the Knicks star. While he likes to attack the rim at a high rate as well, this is going to be a tall ask in this series due to the matchup. In the pair of regular-season matchups, Brunson shot 4-for-7 and 5-for-12 from deep. Count on Brunson being prepared to set the tone in this game and knocking down over 2.5 three-pointers in the series opener tonight.
