It’s finally here. Once again, we have a brand-new NBA Finals matchup in this decade of unmatched parity. The New York Knicks, in the Finals for the first time since 1999, will take on the San Antonio Spurs. Some of the league’s brightest stars will tip off this highly anticipated matchup on Wednesday night, and it promises to be cinema.
Playing at home, the Spurs are -4.5 point favorites for Game 1 on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Their moneyline is set at -185, while the Knicks are +154 underdogs. The total for this game is 218.5 total points. Let’s get into a prediction and pick for this contest.
Knicks vs. Spurs Prediction
The last time these two teams met in the Finals was in 1999. Cher was at the top of the Billboard Top 40, Bill Clinton was in the White House, and the big man dominated the NBA. The Spurs cleaned up that series 4-1 on the strength of their Tim Duncan-David Robinson tandem; New York couldn’t survive the absence of Patrick Ewing. Because time is a flat circle, the Knicks and Spurs are back in the Finals, powered by their big men.
Jalen Brunson gets all the headlines, but Karl-Anthony Towns has been the best player on the Knicks during their incredible playoff run. A lot of that is due to his unheralded defense. KAT is pulling in 25.9% of all missed shots on the defensive end of the floor, 94th percentile amongst big men according to Cleaning the Glass. He’s also posting a 2.5% block rate and 1.8% steal rate. Adding all of that up, 30% of the possessions you have against the Knicks end with a KAT rebound, block, or steal. Towns has also been the best center at defending pick-and-rolls in these playoffs, conceding a mere 0.8 points per possession.
Then you have Victor Wembanyama. For my money, Wembanyama solidified himself as the best player in basketball this season, a title he won’t concede for a very, very long time. His playoff run has only cemented that: with Wembanyama on the floor, the Spurs have a +16.4 net rating. Their starting lineup has a +28.8 net rating, tops amongst all lineups in the playoffs, and leads the NBA in defensive rating, effective field goal percentage allowed, and free throws allowed. Wemby’s presence forces you to take all of the worst shots, which is going to be a problem for these Knicks.
There are a few key points to watch in Game 1. The Spurs are likely to use a wing like Julian Champagnie to guard KAT to avoid his spacing taking Wemby out of the paint. That way, he can guard Josh Hart (a poor shooter), and roam at will to stop the Knicks’ drives from burning them. No team took more shots at the rim in these playoffs than the Knicks. If KAT can make them pay for that matchup, it may force Spurs head coach Mitch Johnson to change tactics. If he can’t, they may be forced to move away from Hart when Wemby is on the floor.
Hart’s presence is part of another swing factor: the rebounds. The Spurs’ starting lineup has a massive weakness on the glass: they were in the 11th percentile in offensive rebounding and 28th percentile in defensive rebounding. As a team, they’re 13th of the 16 playoff teams in offensive rebounds and 7th of 16 in defensive rebounds. The Knicks are sixth in offensive rebounds and second in defensive rebounds. They can also deploy Mitchell Robinson, who has been the best individual offensive rebounder in these playoffs. Nobody forces missed shots quite like the Spurs, but the Knicks could generate an overwhelming amount of second chances if this young San Antonio team doesn’t get busy on the glass.
Finally, there’s the Jalen Brunson-Stephon Castle matchup. Castle’s perimeter defense was a significant reason why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring average in the conference finals was 5.2 points lower than his regular-season number, while his field goal percentage dropped by 14 points. Now he gets to duel with another elite scoring guard. Against the Thunder, Castle largely avoided getting into foul trouble, something that has dogged him through his young career. He needs to do the same against Jalen Brunson, one of the craftiest foul-drawers in the game. Unrelated to Brunson, Castle also has to take care of the ball; his turnovers threatened to sink the Spurs multiple times against the Thunder.
Now that we have a better idea on how these teams operate, let’s get into a prediction and pick for Game 1.
Knicks vs. Spurs Prediction, Pick
One thing that hasn’t been mentioned yet: experience. Looking at these Spurs, you can forget this is their first playoff run for the majority of the rotation. The Knicks have been here for several years in a row, building as a group towards this goal. They know each other’s preferences and weaknesses. They’re accustomed to the ups and downs of playoff basketball. They are built for this moment.
You cannot underrate experience in the postseason. Of course, there are reasons to think the Knicks can win on the court beyond their experience, but it makes a world of difference. I fully expect New York to come out swinging to take this Game 1 on the road down to the wire.
