Wednesday baseball was built for this particular exercise. The afternoon starts while the workday still pretends to matter, then the night slate offers three chances to send one into the seats. Ben Rice brings the established left-handed thunder at Yankee Stadium, where his expected-power numbers are nearly as violent as his results. The fun comes behind him. Wade Meckler is sitting at +740 while his first extended look with the Angels keeps producing barrels, doubles and loud early homers. Bryson Stott is +760 after quietly building a far more homer-friendly swing than his season average suggests. Two longshots. Two completely legitimate damage paths. One gloriously unsubtle Wednesday assignment: swing for the fences.
Below are my three favorite picks from today’s slate of games to swat one out.
Top MLB Home Run Props today
Ben Rice to hit a home run (+360)
Ben Rice is having the kind of power season that makes a +360 number feel welcoming. He enters Wednesday with 17 home runs, 44 RBI and a .305/.397/.650 slash line across 234 plate appearances. The underlying damage is every bit as serious: a .563 xSLG, .408 xwOBA, 92.4 mph average exit velocity, 51.7% hard-hit rate and 17.4% barrel rate. Rice ranks among the American League leaders in home runs, total bases, RBI, slugging percentage and OPS because he has become one of the league’s cleanest mistake punishers.
Gavin Williams makes this number attractive. He has been excellent overall, carrying an 8-3 record, 3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 88 strikeouts through 76.1 innings. His misses are dangerous, though. Williams has allowed nine home runs, including seven to left-handed hitters, with opponents producing a 12.6% barrel rate against him. Rice has mauled four-seam fastballs, slugging 1.268 against the pitch with a .984 xSLG.
Warm Bronx air, Yankee Stadium’s short right-field invitation and Rice’s current barrel profile make this the premium swing on Wednesday’s board.
Wade Meckler to hit a home run (+740)
Wade Meckler has been in Anaheim long enough to turn a curiosity into a power-prop opportunity. Through 33 plate appearances with the Angels, he is 10-for-31 with two doubles, two home runs, 10 RBI and a .323/.364/.581 slash line. He launched his first major-league homer on May 22, hit his first grand slam eight days later, then doubled twice and drove in both Angels runs Tuesday night. The moments have arrived quickly because the contact has been far louder than the price suggests.
Meckler has already produced four barrels across 27 batted balls, good for a 14.8% barrel rate, alongside a .583 xSLG and .382 xwOBA. That profile gets Michael Lorenzen on Wednesday. Colorado’s right-hander enters with a 7.22 ERA, and opponents have tagged him for a .374 xwOBA, .489 xSLG, 46.5% hard-hit rate and 10 home runs allowed. Lorenzen has been giving hitters pitches to damage, then watching those mistakes travel.
A +740 home run ticket requires a specific reason to chase it. Meckler has several: middle-order access, immediate extra-base form, early barrel authority and the softest opposing-starter profile among Wednesday’s selected hitters. One more elevated Lorenzen mistake can turn the Angels’ newest hot bat into the best-priced winner of the night.
Bryson Stott to hit a home run (+760)
Bryson Stott at +760 is the beautifully mischievous swing on Wednesday’s board. His .214 season average keeps the number inflated, while the home-run evidence tells a much livelier story. Stott has hit six home runs in his last 30 games, with 21 RBI and a .447 slugging percentage in that stretch. Three of those homers have come across his last 15 games, including a shot at Dodger Stadium on Sunday. His power has stopped being an occasional surprise.
The contact shape backs it up. Stott enters with a 16.5-degree average launch angle, 89.9 mph average exit velocity, 41.3% pull rate, 7.1% barrel rate and .392 xSLG. That is a useful left-handed air-ball profile at Citizens Bank Park, particularly against Walker Buehler. The Padres right-hander has a 4.88 ERA and 1.32 WHIP through 51.2 innings, while allowing a .426 xSLG, .340 xwOBA, 90.4 mph average exit velocity and 41.7% hard-hit rate.
Philadelphia carries warm June air into the evening, and Stott gets the right kind of matchup for a pulled fly ball to become a souvenir. At +760, the price still treats his power as a sideshow. His last month has given it a far more convincing role.
