Two Italians are going head-to-head for a spot in the French Open semifinals. Matteo Berrettini is hoping to get back to his second career major final. Meanwhile, this has been a breakout tournament for Matteo Arnaldi, who had never previously made it past the fourth round at a major before.
Here is my pick, prediction and best bet on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s quarterfinal match between Matteo Arnaldi and Matteo Berrettini.
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Matteo Berrettini Preview
Matteo Arnaldi Preview
This has been a breakout tournament for Matteo Arnaldi. Arnaldi is currently the No. 104 player in the world, and he has never won an ATP title before in his career. Arnaldi had never made it past the fourth round at a major before, and now he has a real chance to make a semifinal. Despite his lack of success on the ATP Tour, Arnaldi would be classified as a clay specialist. Dating back to his time on the ATP Challenger and ITF Future tours, Arnaldi made 11 total finals and nine of those came on clay. Arnaldi had a terrible start to this clay season, but he went on a run to win the title at the ATP Challenger event in Cagliari. He then pulled off a big upset over Alex de Minaur in Rome and ended up making the Round of 32. All of that being said, this has been a remarkable run through this French Open for Matteo Arnaldi.
Matteo Berrettini Preview
Matteo Berrettini is looking to get back to another major final. He made the Wimbledon final in 2021, where he stole the first set from Novak Djokovic before ultimately losing the match. Berrettini was once as high as No. 6 in the world in 2022, but he had to deal with serious injuries in 2023 and 2024 that tanked his world ranking. From 2022 to 2025, he missed nine majors through injury or needing time off. It looked as if his career could be coming to an end after Berrettini also missed the Australian Open to start this year.
Berrettini started this clay season off strong, double-bageling Daniil Medvedev as a wild-card in Monte Carlo. However, Berrettini did drop out of the top 100 in the ATP rankings for the first time since 2024. There were no real expectations for Berrettini coming into this tournament. However, once Jannik Sinner got upset and the tournament seemed to be wide open, Berrettini seized his opportunity. He has not faced a relatively tough path to this point, but that won’t matter to Berrettini. He is now favored to make it to the semifinals here at Roland-Garros.
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Matteo Berrettini Best Bet
My best bet is on Matteo Berrettini to cover the spread of -1.5 sets. Both of these players are ranked outside of the top 100, and for both of them, it is remarkable to make a run like this at a Grand Slam. However, the reason it is such a shocking run is different for the two players. Arnaldi has never made a run like this at a major, and he has hardly even made it this far in a Masters 1000 event before. For Berrettini, it’s just surprising because we have not seen him healthy in so long. His experience and talent are on another level, and he seems determined to take advantage of this big opportunity. He should win this match in three or four sets.
