On Monday, it was the Reds (31-29) that earned a tenth-inning victory over the Royals (23-38). Cincinnati, despite its solid record, are currently last in the loaded NL Central. It’s a different story for Kansas City, still alive in the wide-open AL Central. Which of these two clubs has the edge going into tonight’s interleague matchup?
The Reds are favorites (-157) over the Royals, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Kansas City and Cincinnati on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Royals vs. Reds pick, best bet
Royals vs. Reds prediction, preview
In an otherwise disappointing Kansas City season, Stephen Kolek has been a bright spot. Over five starts this season, the right-hander has produced a 3.48 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 19 strikeouts (5.5 K/9). Most of his success can be traced back to exceptional control. The 29-year-old ranks within the top 94th percentile among qualified pitchers with a 5.0% walk rate. He’s also done a decent job at limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground. However, Kolek’s biggest weakness is a lack of swing-and-miss stuff. Without the ability to get batters chasing, consistency can be hard to come by.
In many ways, this is a real ‘something’s gotta give’ matchup. As previously mentioned, Kolek doesn’t generate many whiffs. However, the Reds love flailing at pitches. They’re averaging a National League-worst 9.37 strikeouts per game this season. It’s worth noting that face of the franchise Elly De La Cruz (hamstring) is sidelined tonight. Still, five other Cincinnati regulars have notched a wRC+ above 100 this season. Outfielder JJ Bleday has been carrying this offense, hitting .344 with four homers and seven RBIs over his last eight matchups. The Reds are averaging the seventh-most walks per game this season (3.88).
Pitching has been a major issue for Cincinnati, especially in the bullpen. However, starter Chase Burns has been nothing short of fantastic this season. Through 64.1 innings of work, he’s recorded a 1.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 72 strikeouts (10.1 K/9). A quick look on Savant proves the right-hander’s success is no fluke. The 23-year-old is inside the 85th percentile in xERA (2.89), xBA (.201), fastball velocity (98.0 MPH), whiff rate (33.9%) and chase rate (28.9%). Burns has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last eight appearances.
It’s clear that Cincy’s newest ace is a problem for any offense. That’s especially true for tonight’s opponents. The Royals are averaging an MLB-worst 3.82 runs per game. Other than Bobby Witt Jr. (127 wRC+), quality bats are few and far between on this club. To make matters worse, leadoff man Maikel Garcia (hamstring) is questionable to suit up tonight. Other than Witt Jr., no other Kansas City regular has a wRC+ above 100 this season. As a unit, the Royals have posted a .206 batting average, .281 slugging percentage and .274 wOBA against pitches of 97 MPH or faster this season. That doesn’t inspire much confidence against a fireballer such as Burns.
Best Bet: Reds -1.5 (+130)
The absence of De La Cruz isn’t ideal for Cincinnati tonight. However, there’s enough decent bats for this lineup to stay afloat. Kolek, a soft tosser, doesn’t match up particularly well with a group that loves working the count. On the other side, Burns has taken down far more difficult lineups than Kansas City this season. The Reds have the edge in almost every way this evening at Great American Ball Park.
