A high-profile National League rubber match will be taking place in the afternoon today across the loaded MLB slate. With first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET, the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. There is no love lost between these two National League heavyweights, following Los Angeles eliminating Philadelphia in last year’s playoffs en route to their second consecutive World Series Championship. These teams rank first and fifth in odds to win the National League on DraftKings Sportsbook, and this will be an intriguing measuring stick game for both sides.
The Dodgers are 1.5-run favorites with -240 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Phillies sit as +194 underdogs, with the total set at O/U nine runs.
Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
After a nightmare 9-19 start to the season, which led the organization to fire Rob Thomson and make a shake-up at the manager position, the Phillies have done a nice job scrapping out of their self-created hole. Philadelphia has climbed to 30-28 on the season, and sit in second place in the National League East. While it was an ugly start to the year, all goals remain on the table and the Phillies have played much better baseball of late. On the season, the Phillies have gone a league-worst 19-39 to the run line, and the game total is 24-32-2 to the over/under.
Rookie pitcher Andrew Painter will make the start for Philadelphia today. A prized prospect who had his timeline of making it to the major leagues delayed due to Tommy John surgery, it has been a mixed bag of results for Painter thus far. Across his first 10 games pitched, the 23-year-old holds a 5.40 ERA, a 1.460 WHIP, with 40 strikeouts and seven home runs allowed in 50.0 innings pitched. Painter has not escaped a start without allowing a run yet this season, but enters tonight having conceded two or fewer runs in three straight starts.
The underperformance at the start of the season was just about entirely correlated to the team’s struggles at the plate. A larger sample size has been put on display, but the Phillies are still catching up to where they want to be regarding offensive production. As a team, the Phillies are slashing .225/.293/.382 with a .675 OPS. Kyle Schwarber leads the MLB with 22 home runs and 39 total RBIs. Bryce Harper adds 13 home runs and 34 RBIs of his own, while Brandon Marsh leads the team with a .323 batting average. Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, and Justin Crawford have also played major roles on the team. The Phillies rank 29th in the league in hits, 24th in total runs, eighth in home runs, and 17th in strikeouts.
Looking to defend their back-to-back World Series titles, the Los Angeles Dodgers are off to a 37-21 start to the season, which trails only the Braves for the best record in baseball. The loss to the Phillies last night snapped a six-game winning streak, and the Dodgers have won 13 of their past 16. On the season overall, Los Angeles has gone 31-27 to the run line, and the game total is 24-34 to the over/under.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto will get the start for the Dodgers today. the reigning World Series MVP has made 10 starts this season, and enters with a 3.09 ERA, a 0.984 WHIP, 59 strikeouts, and 50 hits allowed across his first 64.0 innings pitched. Yamamoto has yet to escape a start without allowing a run yet this season, but has limited opponents to just one run in back-to-back starts.
The Dodgers offense has largely performed as expected, posting slash lines of .261/.344/.441 with a .785 OPS as a team. Andy Pages posts a team-high 64 hits and an MLB-best 50 RBIs. He is tied with Max Muncy with a team-high 13 home runs. Shohei Ohtani is the lone other player to record 10+ home runs along with his 31 RBIs, while Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Mookie Betts, and Kyle Tucker also play notable roles. Los Angeles ranks third in the MLB in hits, third in total runs, third in home runs, and avoid strikeouts at the seventh-best rate.
Phillies vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
It has been a strange season for the Phillies with some significant ups and downs. Los Angeles produced a 4-2 victory in the series opener, but Philadelphia got back on track with a 4-3 win last night. My lean is toward the Dodgers getting the better of this matchup in the third game, and I would not blink at the -1.5 run line. But this is a pitching matchup that leaves some production available for both sides, that I like each lineup to capitalize on these chances.
Neither of these pitchers has escaped a start this season without allowing at least one run. Painter has conceded as many as eight in an outing, with 30 earned runs allowed across 50 inning pitched. With this being the toughest matchup he has faced to this point, the rookie could be in for some trouble tonight. Painter has been especially vulnerable to allowing home runs, with seven conceded already this year, and this Dodgers lineup took Zack Wheeler deep four times in the series opener.
On the other side of the matchup, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has not looked like the elite version of himself he showed in the playoffs last year. While the bar of expectation is extremely high, Yamamoto has conceded as many as five earned runs in a start and allowed two or greater in six of his 10 starts. The Phillies have also done a respectable job against him since he came to the MLB. Yamamoto has faced the members of the Phillies lineup 31 times, and tallied eight hits, a home run, and two RBIs in these opportunities.
Expect the Dodgers to have some success getting after Painter early and capitalizing on his inexperience. But the Phillies have shown some encouraging resiliency late in games and are swinging the bats much better of late. Expect both offenses to produce to their desired level and for this to be the highest scoring game in the series. The Dodgers put up 15 runs by themselves just four games ago and the Phillies are finally producing at a reliable level after the frustrating start to the year.
Bank on the long ball being a factor today and for Los Angeles to be opportunistic with any missed pitches against the inexperienced pitching matchup. Count on both these National League heavyweights to bring their best effort to get the series win, and for the two teams to cruise past the game total of nine runs in the process.
Best bet: Game Total Over 9 (-103)
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