Rei Tsuruya is facing Luis Gurule in Macau on the UFC Fight Prelims. Tsuruya, 23, is 10-1 with eight finishes, and his lone career loss was against current UFC Flyweight Champion Joshua Van. Gurule is nine years older than Tsuruya but has had only three more fights, with his record standing at 11-3 and six finishes. The Prelims for this event begin at 4:00 a.m. ET on Paramount+.
Check out my prediction for Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule at UFC Macau.
Rei Tsuruya to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+165)
In this fight, Tsuruya has a four-inch reach advantage (68″ vs. 64″) and is slightly taller (5’6″ vs. 5’5″). Including Tsuruya’s time competing on Road to UFC, he is averaging 5.06 takedowns per 15 minutes, and 2.24 significant strikes per minute at a 52 percent rate. Although Gurule lands 3.46 more significant strikes, Tsuruya is more accurate while being better defensively on the feet.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Tsuruya is a -325 favorite while Gurule is a +260 underdog in this contest. This fight has an over/under of 2.5 rounds, with the over being -180. Tsuruya is +120 to win by decision and +240 to pick up the victory by KO/TKO/DQ.
Tsuruya is the more talented all-around fighter in this contest. After a year away from MMA, Tsuruya should be well prepared for his matchup with Gurule. Going from fighting Van to Gurule is a major step down in competition for Tsuruya. When Tsuruya is active and aggressive, he is a very exciting and skillful fighter. I think Tsuruya picks up his first win by finish since February 2024 in this fight. You can get Tsuruya to win this bout by KO/TKO/DQ or submission at +165.
