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Prediction, pick for Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris at UFC Macau

Prediction, pick for Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris at UFC Macau

Published:

By: Cooper Albers

Veteran welterweights collide on Saturday, as Australia’s Jake Matthews faces Guyana’s Carlston Harris at UFC Macau.

Matthews (22–8, 15–8 UFC) has won three of his last four bouts but looks to bounce back from a third-round submission loss against Neil Magny in September. Harris (19–7, 4–3 UFC) returns to the Octagon for the first time since January 2025, when he suffered a third-round knockout loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio — his third stoppage defeat in his last five trips to the Octagon.

Matthews enters as a strong -325 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Harris is a +260 underdog, with the total set at O/U 2.5 rounds.

Matthews vs. Harris Preview

Jake Matthews

Jake Matthews is one of the UFC’s longest-tenured fighters to never crack the divisional rankings. Since his 2014 debut, the Australian freestyle fighter has remained stuck on the fringe of the top 15. 

That’s not to say he’s out of time. Still just 31 years old, “The Celtic Kid” has gone a respectable 11–5 since bulking up to welterweight in 2017, winning three of his last four bouts in the process. Pairing sharp striking with black-belt jiu-jitsu, Matthews owns a 64% finish rate — five knockouts and nine submissions — and poses a legitimate threat to anyone locked inside a cage with him.

Carlston Harris

Carlston Harris was originally lined up as Michael Chiesa’s final opponent in March, but Visa issues pushed Harris’ return even further down the road. On Saturday night, “Mocambique” will make his first walk to the Octagon since January of last year. 

He didn’t exactly ride off into the sunset, either. While Harris has demonstrated sharp boxing and strong jiu-jitsu — with five career knockout wins and six submissions — he dropped three of his last five fights before the hiatus, all by knockout. Now 38, questions linger about his durability and whether he can still keep up with the rest of the division.

Matthews vs. Harris Pick, Best Bet

Rarely does the more experienced fighter also carry a seven-year age advantage. Matthews is one of the toughest unranked fighters at 170 pounds and should showcase a clear edge from the opening bell. Expect “The Celtic Kid” to test Harris’ eroding chin early and put him away inside the distance. 

Best Bet: Jake Matthews by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-115)

Cooper Albers profile photo

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.