Last season, three of the five teams in the American League East made the postseason, as the New York Yankees ousted the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Round and the Toronto Blue Jays took care of the Yankees in the Divisional Round. Both the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles, who were playoff teams in recent seasons, missed out.
Tampa Bay looks destined for the postseason in 2026, as it currently leads the division, while Baltimore, two games behind the third Wild Card spot at the moment, has a lot of work to do. The Orioles did win on Monday and Tuesday against Tampa Bay, and they’ll have a chance to go for their second sweep of the season at 6:35 p.m. tonight in Baltimore.
Steven Matz will start the series finale for the Rays, and the Orioles will counter with Trey Gibson.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles prediction, preview
After a 5-7 start, Tampa Bay has been the best team in baseball, winning 29 of 40 games, a 117-win pace across the full season. The Rays also swept Baltimore last week at Tropicana Field, with each game decided by multiple runs. Tampa Bay’s offense has taken a leap from 14th in OPS to seventh so far this season, as Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, and Yandy Díaz have all recorded at least a 137 OPS+. The Rays’ rotation has made even more strides, as it was a league-average unit last season and has been by far the best in baseball so far, with every regular starting posting a 3.70 ERA or better. Tampa Bay’s bullpen hasn’t been great, falling from 12th to 20th in ERA, but closer Bryan Baker has replaced the departed Pete Fairbanks nicely and Kevin Kelly has bounced back after a rough 2025. The Rays are due for some regression overall, as they’ve gone an unsustainable 9-1 in one-run games, but the signs are undoubtedly encouraging.
As for Baltimore, it’s in year two of a rebuild after making the playoffs in both 2023 and 2024. It’s been a season of runs for the Orioles, as they started off 15-15, lost 14 of their next 20 games, and have since won four of their last five. Their major offseason move to shore up their offense — signing Pete Alonso — has proven useful so far, as Alonso has 10 home runs and has helped the team improve from 21st to 16th in OPS. The fact that 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday, who missed the first month and a half of the season while recovering from a fractured hand, is back in the lineup could also help in the long run. Still, both the rotation and the bullpen could use some work, as both rank in the bottom 10 in ERA for the second consecutive season. Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt have both been poor free agency acquisitions, and Trevor Rogers, who had a 1.81 ERA in 109.2 innings last season, has been one of baseball’s worst hurlers so far in 2026.
To be fair, Matz has been Tampa Bay’s worst starter, but that doesn’t mean he’s been bad. This season, the journeyman, who pitched out of the bullpen in the past two campaigns, has a 3.70 ERA across eight starts and has given up two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven appearances. Still, advanced numbers don’t paint such a positive picture of him; he ranks above the league median in only four Statcast categories, and his 4.43 expected ERA suggests that regression could be on the horizon. In particular, Matz has struggled to induce grounders, which has led to just a 15th-percentile barrel rate, though Baltimore has had a below-average barrel rate as is. Matz also hasn’t incentivized many chases, so he could issue a lot of walks, given the Orioles’ extremely disciplined plate approach, and Baltimore’s tendency to record hard hits could mitigate his lone strength. The splits also aren’t in his favor, as he’s been significantly worse on the road and the Orioles significantly better at home.
Gibson, meanwhile, is a pretty untested pitcher. He made his MLB debut on May 3, giving up three earned runs in 4.2 innings, and he made a two-inning relief appearance five days later before being sent back to the minors. His minor league track record isn’t particularly impressive, either; in 15 starts between this season and last at Triple-A, he sports a 5.75 ERA and just a 2.10 strikeout-to-walk ratio, though at least he allowed just one earned run in each of his last two Triple-A starts and hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in any appearance. It’s not worth looking too much into his Statcast profile, given his 6.2-inning sample size, but he excelled at inducing chases and ground balls and struggled in every other facet of the game. The Rays might not get too many hard hits off of him, given that they rank dead last in barrel rate, hard hit percentage, and average exit velocity, but they make contact at the league’s highest rate even when they do chase, and Baltimore has been among the league’s worst-fielding teams. Baltimore’s bullpen could be in for a lot of work.
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 9 (-108)
Matz hasn’t been great this season, and the Orioles’ patient approach at the plate could force him out of the game and make Tampa Bay turn to its mediocre bullpen. I’m also not sold by Gibson, who has yet to show much of his tantalizing promise at even the Triple-A level.
Strong Lean: Chandler Simpson 1+ Home Runs (+1460)
I’d love to correctly predict Simpson’s first career home run (and first career barrel!), and he might never get a better opportunity than this. Oriole Park at Camden Yards is both one of the most homer-friendly and triple-friendly venues for left-handed hitters, Gibson is an inexperienced, barrel-prone pitcher, and Baltimore right fielder Tyler O’Neill isn’t a good fielder. With the right bounce, he could make it all the way around for an inside-the-park homer, or he could sneak it over the seven-foot wall at 318 feet down the line. The wall at Charlotte County Stadium, where he hit his lone homer in spring training, is 25 feet further.
