We’ve got a puny three-game slate for Thursday’s MLB action.
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $100K Bat Flip [$25K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros at Texas Rangers ($8,500) — I have some issues with Paul Skenes and Nathan Eovaldi, so I’m going to pay down a bit to Arrighetti. Skenes hasn’t been good in his last two starts, and Chicago ranks 23rd in strikeouts and fifth in wRC+. As for Eovaldi, Houston is 21st in strikeouts and sixth in wRC+. Arrighetti doesn’t have the strikeout prowess of Skenes and Eovaldi, clocking in with a 22.9% K-rate and an 8.6% K-BB%. However, he’s allowed only one home run in 41 innings and posted a 3.71 FIP. The average exit velocity is only 86.7 mph, while the barrel rate is only 5.8%. Arrighetti has reached 20 FPTS in four games this season, with two performances over 30 FPTS. It’s within the range of outcomes, matching or even exceeding the higher-priced options.
Value
Patrick Corbin, Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles ($7,000) — Corbin has a 16.8% strikeout rate — gross. But he’s only allowed four home runs in 44.1 innings, while posting a 3.96 FIP. This is strictly a matchup play, as Baltimore is sixth in strikeouts, 24th in wOBA, and 25th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Corbin just put up 26.5 FPTS in his last outing. That said, that was his only performance exceeding 20 FPTS. He has had five single-digit FPTS outings, including a -0.2 FPTS game.
INFIELD
Stud
Spencer Horwitz, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs ($3,400) — Horwitz is slashing .289/.391/.467 with a .178 ISO in 184 plate appearances. The walk rate is 14.1% while the strikeout rate is 13%. He’s racked up six home runs, 20 runs, 25 RBIs, and one stolen base. Horwitz has posted a 155 wRC+ and a .209 ISO against right-handed pitching, with all of his home runs coming against them as well. Since April 27th, he has put up double-digit FTPS nine times, including three straight contests.
Value
Coby Mayo, Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($3,100) — Mayo strikes out 30.8% of the time and is slashing .186/.259/.333 in 143 plate appearances. The BABIP is only .235, though. Mayo owns a 145 wRC+ and a .293 ISO against left-handed pitching, with three of his five home runs coming off southpaws. Mayo has also produced fantasy goodies in nine straight matchups, including three double-digit FPTS performances. All four home runs Patrick Corbin has allowed this season have come against righties, contributing to a 6.7% K-BB% and 4.64 FIP to the split.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros at Texas Rangers ($5,900) — Alvarez is putting up video game numbers with a .303/.414/.631 slash, a 14.6% walk rate, a 16.7% strikeout rate, and a .328 ISO! He’s hit 18 home runs in 239 plate appearances. Eleven of those long balls have come off righties. Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 11 home runs, with eight of those coming off the bat of a lefty. The FIP is 4.71 against left-handed batters as well.
Value
Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs ($2,300) — Valdez was called up last week. In the first two games, he went 0-for-5 with a walk and three strikeouts. In the last two games, he’s gone 2-for-7 with two home runs, five RBIs, a walk, and four strikeouts — good for 20 and 16 FPTS. He’s cheap and has power.
