Midway through a lost season with the LA Clippers, James Harden requested a trade to the Cleveland Cavaliers, hoping to make his first NBA Finals appearance 2012. Now, time is of the essence if Harden wants to avoid elimination at this stage for the fourth time in his career, as the Cavaliers are down 2-0 to the New York Knicks, and Harden hasn’t played up to his lofty contract and expectations.
Game 3 will begin at 8:10 p.m. ET tonight in Cleveland, and the series could effectively end if the Cavaliers lose. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a playoff series.
Cleveland is a 2.5-point favorite for tonight’s clash at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set to 215.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around The Beard.
Best James Harden Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
James Harden U5.5 Assists (+109)
Harden became even more of a playmaking savant late in his career, averaging at least 8.0 assists per game in each of his last six seasons, but he’s consistently been a playoff dropper, averaging 0.9 fewer assists per game in the postseason than the regular season despite playing nearly two more minutes per game. This season, he’s dished out fewer than six assists in exactly half of his playoff games, including just five total in the first two games of the series. His time of possession is down nearly one minute per game relative to the regular season, and his potential assists per game are down by 2.5.
The Knicks’ defense has played him well. In general, they’ve had the best defense so far these playoffs, giving up just 104.0 points per 100 possessions and allowing the fewest assists per game, giving him a low baseline. New York has been guarding him with Mikal Bridges, whose seven-foot-one wingspan makes him a menace in the passing lanes, and unlike his previous spots, he’s not the top scoring option, so the Knicks won’t send doubles and dare him to pass. Harden has predominantly passed it to Evan Mobley, and he’s had a very difficult time against Karl-Anthony Towns.
James Harden 2+ Steals (+171)
If there’s one upside to Harden’s poor defense, it raises his steals potential. During New York’s Game 1 comeback, it relentlessly hunted Harden in isolation down the stretch, and Jalen Brunson has been particularly effective, shooting 11-for-18 when guarded by him. This series, Harden has either guarded OG Anunoby or Brunson for a total of 19 minutes of action, and they rank third and first on the team, respectively, in drives per game these playoffs. When his opponent initiates a drive, Harden frequently gets blown by before recovering by swiping his hand down on the ball and nabbing a steal. He’s had two or more steals in eight of his 16 games these playoffs, making +171 excellent value. He’s averaged 0.5 more deflections per 100 possessions these playoffs than he did in the regular season, and his stop percentage has jumped by 1.4 percentage points.
