You have to feel for Mets fans at this point, right?
After Monday drubbing of the Nationals to start this four-game series — the team’s sixth win in its last seven contests — it finally felt like things were turning around. Nope. Not only has New York lost the last two nights, but it’s wasted a Bo Bichette two home run game and a Juan Soto two home run game. The bats are coming alive, but now it’s the pitching staff letting everyone down. Woof.
Meanwhile, Washington has clawed its way back up to .500 in the most entertainingly average season imaginable. If you turn on a Nationals game, you are going to see some action. That’s a guarantee. The club comes into this afternoon’s tilt leading the league in both runs scored (279) and runs allowed (294). Tell me that’s not the most fun type of rebuild.
Let’s preview this NL East battle and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mets vs. Nationals prediction, preview
I’ll just come out and say it: I’m a Cade Cavalli believer. The former first-round pick could stand to be a little more economical with his pitches, but Cavalli’s shown flashes of brilliance in the 20 starts he’s made since returning from a lengthy injury recovery in late 2025. Specific to 2026, Cavalli’s managed a 4.05 ERA and a 3.39 FIP across 10 appearances and 46.2 innings, and things could look so much better on the surface if not for a massive .378 opponent BABIP — the second-highest mark of the 119 pitchers who have tossed at least 40 frames so far this season. It’s left-handed bats that have benefitted the most from this misfortune, as the 116 that have faced Cavalli this year have combined to slash .356/.431/.485 with a .409 wOBA and a jaw-dropping .493 batting average on balls in play. That simply can not sustain.
On the other side of this pitching matchup, we find David Peterson. If you can believe it, the veteran LHP might even be more unlucky than Cavalli. Peterson’s 2.97 FIP is two-and-a-half runs lower than his current 5.40 ERA. How did we get here? Well, you don’t have to look much further than a .363 opponent BABIP and a microscopic 60.1% stand rate — the sixth-lowest mark among that same group of 119 pitchers. Peterson’s in possession of a 89th percentile ground ball rate (54.0%) and that’s translated to a career-low 5.1% opponent barrel rate. He’s also striking out well over a batter per inning for the first time since 2023. I’d have to believe that the baseball gods start smiling down on the 30-year-old at some point soon.
Maybe that day is today for Peterson. I mean, things have been trending more positively so far in May, as the southpaw sports a 2.77 ERA and a 1.42 FIP in the month, along with a very impressive 5.67 K/BB ratio. This also should be a decent matchup on paper, as the Nationals are among the most left-handed lineups in MLB. That said, Peterson has already seen Washington in 2026. He squared off with the Nationals back on April 29 and surrendered a season-high seven earned runs in just 3.2 innings of work. Heck, Washington’s 126 wRC+ versus lefties is the best mark in the league. Overlook this roster at your own peril. The Nationals can swing the lumber.
Mets vs. Nationals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 8 (-105)
These teams have averaged 16.6 runs per game in the first three contests of this series. 68.1% of Nationals games have hit the over so far this season — easily the highest mark in MLB. Both Peterson and Cavalli are better than their ERA suggests, but this total is simply too low.
Strong Lean: Juan Soto 2+ Total Bases (+126)
While much of Cavalli’s issues with LHBs are BABIP-based, he’s still giving up a .409 wOBA within the split. Meanwhile, Soto owns a 1.005 OPS and a 171 wRC+ in his last 20 games. That includes three home runs in his last two starts.
