We’ve got a four-game slate for Thursday’s MLB action.
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins ($10,000) — It’s been three starts since Strider returned from injury. The positive is that his swing-and-miss ability didn’t go anywhere, posting a 31% strikeout rate. The negative is that Strider’s control has been predictably all over the map, with a 17.2% walk rate. He’s also been lucky with a .241 BABIP and 84.3% strand rate. That said, Strider has only allowed one home run in 14.2 innings. The average exit velocity is 86.7 mph with a 6.7% barrel rate. The Marlins hover around the middle of the pack in strikeouts, wOBA and wRC+.
Value
Luis Severino, Athletics at Los Angeles Angels ($6,500) — Like Strider, Severino has a control problem with a 12.9% walk rate. Unlike Strider, Severino has no excuse of rust or injury. His strikeout rate is 22.4%, while his FIP is 4.61. He’s allowed seven home runs in 54.2 innings. A small slate makes it tough to find cheap options, and Severino is one of the better ones due to the matchup. Los Angeles strikes out at the highest rate in MLB.
INFIELD
Stud
Nick Kurtz, Athletics at Los Angeles Angels ($5,500) — Kurtz has been putting the hurt on opposing pitchers this season, posting a .212 ISO with a .276/.431/.488 slash line. The strikeout rate is high at 29.2%, but the walk rate is also at 20.4%. A .394 BABIP fuels his batting average, but the average exit velocity is a whopping 95 mph with a 16.8% barrel rate. The bat speed is 78 mph — good for MLB’s 99th percentile. Kurtz started the season getting bageled in three of the first five games. Since then, he’s put up at least 2 FPTS in every contest, with nine over 20 and a high of 30 FPTS. Against right-handed pitching, Kurtz owns a 182 wRC+ and a .273 ISO. Jose Soriano has had a magical start to the season, but he’s allowed four of his five home runs to lefties with a bloated 4.05 FIP.
Value
Nolan Arenado, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies ($3,300) — Arenado still has it at 35 years old, posting a .278/.351/.477 slash with a .199 ISO in 171 plate appearances. The walk rate is 9.4% while the strikeout rate is only 19.3%. His average exit velocity is only 85.2 mph, though. Arenado has hit five of his seven home runs against right-handed pitchers, while also boasting a 136 wRC+ and a .198 ISO against them. Tomoyuki Sugano owns a 5.50 FIP with a 5.6% K-BB%, a 90.7 mph average exit velocity, and a 15.5% barrel rate.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies ($5,400) — More Sugano, as he has posted a 6.82 FIP and a 4.3% K-BB% against lefties. Six of the nine home runs he’s surrendered were hit by lefties, as well. Carroll is slashing .285/.395/.563 with a .278 ISO. He has seven home runs, 33 runs, 24 RBIs, and six stolen bases in 190 plate appearances. He owns a 91 mph average exit velocity, a 14.5% barrel rate, and a 75.1 mph bat speed. He has hit six of his home runs against righties, while posting a 130 wRC+ despite a .217 BABIP.
Value
Tyler Freeman, Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks ($3,000) — Freeman has a .089 ISO in 104 plate appearances — gross. Still, he has two home runs, eight runs, 14 RBIs, and four stolen bases. He has also posted a .231 ISO against lefties, with both of his homers coming off southpaws. Freeman has put up double-digit FPTS in five of his last 12 games. Eduardo Rodriguez has been solid this season with a 3.86 FIP. He’s only allowed four home runs in 53.1 innings. However, he has posted a 4.06 FIP and a paltry 6.1% K-BB% against righties.
