In the loaded NL Central, two clubs have surpassed expectations to start the season. Pittsburgh (24-23) has been much improved, especially on offense. However, the Pirates come into this one having dropped three straight. They’ll hope to turn things around tonight against the Cardinals (27-19). St. Louis has been on a heater, having won 13 of its last 19 matchups. Can the Redbirds keep the good times rolling against a division rival?
The Cardinals are favorites (-119) over the Pirates, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Pittsburgh and St. Louis on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
If anyone other than Paul Skenes can snap Pittsburgh out of a funk, it’s Mitch Keller. While he isn’t an ace, the eighth-year pro is one of the National League’s most dependable arms. Through 52.2 innings this season, the former All-Star owns a 3.59 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 38 strikeouts (6.5 K/9). Instead of generating whiffs, he does most of his damage by inducing weak fly balls. Stellar control (7.1 BB%, 2.6 BB/9) is a key component of the righty’s skillset as well. Despite a middling 4.27 xERA, Keller has outperformed advanced metrics throughout his career.
It helps that the right-hander has a solid track record in this spot. Over Keller’s last five meetings with the Cardinals, he’s recorded a 1.89 ERA. Still, a lot can change over the course of one year. St. Louis has been buoyed on offense by a breakout campaign from Jordan Walker. The former top prospect is finally living up to his sky-high potential. Through 45 games, he’s slashing .301/.371/.584 with 13 homers, 34 RBIs and seven steals. In retrospect, it shouldn’t come as a major shock; the outfielder is only 23 years old. That production has been needed on an otherwise middling offense. The Cardinals rank 16th in runs scored (208), 15th in batting average (.241) and 12th in OPS (.709).
Keller’s most used off-speed pitches are the sweeper (19%), slider (16%) and changeup (10%). Against those offerings, St. Louis hitters have recorded a .229 expected batting average, .283 expected on-base percentage and .272 wOBA.
On the other side, it’ll be Matthew Liberatore toeing the slab for the Cards. At this point, the 26-year-old has proven to be a middling injury eater for most of his career. This season is no exception; he’s produced a 4.40 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 34 strikeouts (6.5 K/9). Per Savant, the southpaw’s 5.86 xERA suggests he’s due for some regression in the near future. He ranks among the bottom five percent of all qualified pitchers in average exit velocity (91.8 MPH) and expected batting average (.297).
After looking over those numbers, it’s safe to say that Liberatore isn’t likely to toss a gem tonight. Still, it’s not as if his opponents inspire much confidence. The Pirates have been a far better unit offensively this season, averaging the seventh-most runs per game in baseball (4.87). However, the catch is that Pittsburgh is far less intimidating away from the friendly confines of PNC Park. The Buccos are only putting up 4.24 runs per game on the road compared to 5.38 at home. To boot, they’ve accounted for the league’s seventh-worst OPS against left-handed pitching (.657).
Pirates vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
Pittsburgh has the pitching edge tonight, but an inconsistent lineup with southpaw issues gives cause for concern. On the other side, Walker has done most of the heavy lifting for an otherwise unremarkable offense. At pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium, runs could be at a premium on Tuesday.
