The fourth fight on tonight’s UFC Fight Night Main Card is an intriguing Bantamweight contest between Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz. Wellmaker has a record of 10-1 with eight finishes, while Diaz is 15-1-1 with seven wins by knockout or submission. The Main Card for this event begins on Paramount+ at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Check out my best bet for Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz below.
Malcolm Wellmaker to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+100)
Wellmaker is coming off the first loss of his career at UFC 322 in November 2025. From the start of his last fight, Wellmaker seemed off, and his opponent, Ethyn Ewing, did an excellent job of being aggressive while having a high output. Before that bout, Wellmaker won 10 consecutive fights and four straight by knockout. His opponent, Diaz, is making his UFC debut and has won eight straight bouts.
On paper, Wellmaker has the advantage, as he is taller (5’10” vs. 5’8″) and has a larger standing reach (71″ vs. 69″. Wellmaker is a phenomenal striker, averaging 5.80 significant strikes per minute at a 56 percent rate. An area he needs to improve in is his defense on the feet, as he is absorbing 5.39 significant strikes per minute.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Wellmaker is a -258 favorite with Diaz being the underdog at +210. The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds, with the under being -125 and the over being -105.
I think Wellmaker will be more prepared for this fight after coming off a loss. If Wellmaker is aggressive while moving around the Octagon more often, he should be able to return to form. Since eight of Wellmaker’s 10 victories have come by finish, I’m taking him to win this contest by KO/TKO/DQ or submission at +100.
