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Rafael Jodar vs. Luciano Darderi Pick, Prediction for Italian Open Quarterfinal

Rafael Jodar vs. Luciano Darderi Pick, Prediction for Italian Open Quarterfinal

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By: Blake Krass

The 2026 Italian Open is the final big clay tournament ahead of the French Open. There is a great quarterfinal match set between Rafael Jodar and Luciano Darderi. The match begins at 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, May 13th.

Rafael Jodar vs. Luciano Darderi Preview

It has been a meteoric rise for Rafael Jodar over the past couple of months. Last year, Jodar was playing college tennis at the University of Virginia. He was named the 2025 ACC Freshman of the Year, but he decided to set his sights much higher and turn professional at 19 years old. In his first four-and-a-half months as a professional tennis player, Jodar has already proven that he made the right choice. He broke into the top 100 in the ATP rankings with a solid performance in Miami. However, Jodar really showed how great he could be when the calendar turned to clay season.

Jodar started the clay season by playing in the Grand Prix Hassan II, a lower-level ATP 250 tournament. Jodar went on to win the tournament, claiming his first ATP title. He followed that up by defeating Cameron Norrie en route to the semifinals at the Barcelona Open. Jodar then made the quarterfinals in Madrid, where he lost to Jannik Sinner. He has now made the quarterfinals in four straight events and is proving to be one of the most consistent players in the world on clay. In the live ATP rankings, he has broken into the top 30 in the world ahead of this match.

Luciano Darderi is another bright young player. As a 24-year-old, he has significantly more experience than Jodar. He is currently the No. 20 player in the world, and he will move up higher after his incredible upset over Alexander Zverev in the Round of 16. That was Darderi’s first-ever win over a top-10 player, and it came against the No. 3 player in the world in a Masters 1000 event.

Darderi is undoubtedly a clay specialist. He has been to six ATP Tour finals, and all six have come on clay. Even more impressive is the fact that Darderi is 5-1 in those finals. They have all been ATP 250 events, so he has never broken through at a tournament like this, but this could be his chance after taking down Zverev.

Rafael Jodar vs. Luciano Darderi Pick, Best Bet

These two exciting young clay specialists have never faced off before. That is unsurprising as it is Jodar’s first year as a professional. However, this could set off an exciting future rivalry. It’s remarkable that Darderi has already stacked five ATP 250 titles on clay. It’s also incredible that Jodar has already won his first ATP 250 title on clay in just his first four months as a professional. If these two continue to develop, they could be facing off in a lot of big spots on clay over the next decade.

My best bet is on this match to go over 2.5 sets. This feels incredibly significant for both players. The winner of this match will face either Casper Ruud or Karen Khachanov in the semifinals. That is a very winnable match for both of these players. This is the chance for both Jodar and Darderi to have a true breakout tournament and make a first-ever ATP 1000 final. Both players should come with their best stuff and trade blows back and forth, forcing this match to a third set.

Best Bet: Rafael Jodar/Luciano Darderi o2.5 Sets (+125)

Blake Krass

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.