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Prediction, pick for Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg at UFC Perth

Prediction, pick for Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg at UFC Perth

Published:

By: Cooper Albers

It’s going down in the “Land Down Under” as ranked flyweights — Tim Elliott and hometown favorite Steve Erceg — collide at UFC Perth.

Elliott (22–13–1, 10–11 UFC) has won six of his last eight bouts, most recently cinching a second-round submission against Kai Asakura in August 2025. Erceg (13–4, 4–3 UFC) snapped a brutal three-fight skid that same month with a unanimous decision win over Ode Osbourne.

Erceg enters as a -238 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Elliott sits as a +195 underdog. The total is set at O/U 2.5 rounds.

Elliott vs. Erceg Preview

Tim Elliott (#11)

Tim Elliott refuses to slow down as he nears the finish line. At 39, the seasoned veteran has won six of his last eight fights, a strong run punctuated by a second-round submission victory over former RIZIN champion Kai Asakura in August. 

The former TUF winner — who made his UFC debut in 2012 — has made a career out of relentless grappling, chaotic scrambles, and eccentric movement. Eleven of his 22 professional victories have come inside the distance, highlighted by eight submissions and six first-round finishes. He enters Saturday night eyeing one last run at the title before it’s all said and done.

Steve Erceg (#12)

It’s been all downhill since Steve Erceg’s flyweight title loss to dominant champion Alexandre Pantoja in May 2024. That defeat triggered a three-fight tailspin for the Australian contender. 

“Astroboy” finally broke his fall with a short-notice decision victory over Ode Osbourne at bantamweight in August. Now 30, he looks to resume his push toward the 125-pound throne. 

Erceg pairs black-belt jiu-jitsu with surgical striking, wielding more than enough power to end a fight. Eight of his 13 professional wins have come by finish, including six submissions — and underscored by his thunderous second-round knockout of Matt Schnell.

Elliott vs. Erceg Pick, Best Bet

Tim Elliott had already made his UFC debut by the time Steve Erceg first put on a pair of gloves. 

What the Australian lacks in Octagon experience, he makes up for with elite striking, sound takedown defense, and nearly a decade less wear and tear. Add to that a notable size advantage.

Expect “Astroboy” to neutralize Elliott’s frantic style, stuffing takedowns and asserting himself on the feet. His measured style likely won’t produce a finish, but it should be enough to secure the win in front of the hometown crowd.

Best Bet: Steve Erceg by Decision (-110)

Cooper Albers profile photo

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.