Just over two and a half weeks after undergoing an appendectomy prior to the Philadelphia 76ers’ game against the Houston Rockets, Joel Embiid returned to the court prior to Game 4 of Philadelphia’s first round series against the Boston Celtics, and while the 76ers lost that game, his presence has changed the tenor of the series. He had 33 points and eight assists in Game 5 to help keep Philadelphia’s season alive.
Now, 76ers fans surely believe that with a healthy Embiid, they have a chance to win tonight’s 8:10 p.m. ET Game 6, sending the series back to Boston for a winner-take-all Game 7 on Saturday night.
Philadelphia is a 6.5-point underdog for tonight’s clash at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set to 212.5. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bet centered around the 2022-23 MVP.
Best Joel Embiid Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Joel Embiid 28+ Points (-109)
Nothing about Embiid’s performances so far this series has been particularly anomalous, as his scoring has mostly been a result of usage, not efficiency. In fact, if anything, his efficiency is likely to improve, given that he’s shot just one-for-11 (9.1%) from beyond the arc in his first two games of the series. Embiid has tried 6.0 shots per game within five feet of the basket, an even higher rate than he posted during the regular season, and those should continue to be effective. He’s also drawn fouls at will, attempting at least nine free throws in both Games 4 and 5, which is pretty sustainable, given that he is the all-time career leader in free throw attempts per game.
The Celtics are relatively well-positioned to stop him, but they haven’t been perfect this series. During the regular season, Boston was among the best rim-protecting teams in basketball, allowing opponents to attempt a league-low 21.7 shots per game within five feet, but so far these playoffs, it’s been slightly more gettable, giving up 25.6 such shots per game. Additionally, the Celtics are due for some regression in their defensive efficiency; during the regular season, opponents shot 63.0% on such shots, and so far this series, the 76ers are shooting only 58.6%. Plus, Neemias Queta’s stop percentage has dropped off dramatically relative to the regular season, and his foul rate has gone up. If Embiid can work Queta out of the game, he can definitely be effective against Nikola Vučevič.
