The first fight of tonight’s UFC Fight Night is Talita Alencar vs. Julia Polastri in a three-round Women’s Strawweight contest. Alencar is 3-1 in the UFC while Polastri is 2-2 in the UFC. The Prelims for this card begin at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Check out my best bet for Talita Alencar vs. Julia Polastri at UFC Vegas 116.
Julia Polastri to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+300)
Polastri is coming off a third-round knockout over Karolina Kowalkiewicz, which was her first knockout in three years. In her career, Polastri is 14-5 with eight finishes. Even though Polastri is seven years younger than Alencar, she has 10 more fights on her record. In November 2025, Alencar picked up her latest victory against Ariane Carnelossi by submission.
Although Polastri is only one inch taller (5’2″ vs. 5’1″), she has a massive five-inch reach advantage (63″ vs. 58″) over Alencar. Alencar is the much better striker in this matchup, averaging 6.40 significant strikes per minute at a 54 percent rate, compared to Polastri, who lands 2.91 significant strikes at 37 percent accuracy.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Polastri is a -230 favorite while Alencar is a +190 underdog in this contest. The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds, with the over at -330 and the under being +240. This fight is -275 to go the distance and +200 to end before the allotted 15 minutes.
Seven of Polastri’s previous 10 wins have come by submission or knockout, and four of her last five wins have been by finish. With that being the case, I’m taking Polastri to win this fight by finish at +300. With her reach advantage, Polastri should be able to pick apart Alencar on the feet, leading to a big victory.
